INSIDE RUSSIA AND EURASIA – On-line Intelligence Bulletin of the European Press Agency

No Thanksgiving for Ukraine

By Nina Bachkatov

Thanksgiving has passed. President Donald Trump pardoned two turkeys rather than the traditional one, but his 28-point peace plan — which he intended President Volodymyr Zelensky to sign by the holiday — has met a barrage of criticism and accusations of capitulation to Vladimir Putin. Nonetheless, it has triggered a flurry of diplomatic activity far beyond the four parties directly involved in the search for a settlement — Kyiv, Moscow, Washington and the EU. The plan has been taken seriously further afield, as shown by offers of mediation or safe venues for talks from Turkey, Arab capitals and even Belarus.

Trump’s initiative, reworked into a 19-point document drafted jointly by Ukrainian and US officials, remains at the centre of discussions. It contains two so-called “details” left for “further talks” — an odd label given they concern core issues such as security guarantees for Ukraine and territorial questions. Whatever happens, it will not be resolved tomorrow. In the meantime, the length of the war has reshaped public attitudes, political dynamics and financial calculations. These shifts are reflected in the composition of the negotiating delegations and the distribution of responsibilities among them. Yet in the end, the decisions lie with Trump, Putin and Zelensky.

Pandora’s Blades: Drones Redefine Security in Europe

By Nina Bachkatov and Romain Constantin

The use of drones has shifted from anecdotal to essential in modern warfare, largely due to the war in Ukraine. No one speaks any more of a “war of another time”, with soldiers in trenches and artillery barrages. Over the course of the conflict, drones have become indispensable on land, at sea, and in the air. They are used for everything from kamikaze strikes and aerial bombardments to delivering supplies, scattering leaflets, conducting reconnaissance, and even engaging in drone-on-drone combat. It has become an industry in its own right, as shown by the increasing number of media reports on the Ukrainian war appearing as frequently in financial pages as in international ones.

From the very first days of the conflict in February 2022, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) began to play a crucial role on the battlefield. The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 gained early renown for striking Russian military equipment with remarkable precision. Its success was amplified by video footage captured by the drones themselves—images that quickly became defining visuals of the war and a powerful tool of information warfare.

The Reality Behind the Summits on Ukraine

By Nina Bachkatov

The recent meeting between President Trump and President Xi was expected, in some quarters, to mark the moment when Washington would pressure Beijing to in turn pressure Moscow into accepting a “just peace” in Ukraine. Instead, it highlighted the limits of that expectation. The two leaders announced only that they would “do something together” on Ukraine. There was no mention of secondary sanctions should China continue to support Russia’s war effort. Taiwan, the other major strategic question in the room, was left untouched.

The encounter was consistent with the broader pattern of Trump’s tour of South and South-East Asia during the ASEAN summit in Malaysia. Trade dominated every bilateral exchange. Trump arrived buoyed by what he characterised as diplomatic success in the Middle East and presided over a symbolic peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia. He authorised South Korea to build a nuclear submarine. Leaders offered concessions and investment as the price of tariff relief from Washington. Market openings and headline investment pledges into the US replaced any notion of a rules-based trading order.

Russia’s Messaging Platforms at a Crossroads

By Nina Bachkatov and Romain Constantin

When Russia’s communications regulator Roskomnadzor ordered restrictions on WhatsApp and Telegram calls on 13 August 2025, it marked a new escalation in the state’s long campaign to bring foreign tech platforms to heel. The move targeted Russia’s two most popular messaging services – used by 57 and 46 per cent of the population respectively – and followed weeks of speculation in Moscow’s political circles.

Authorities framed the decision as a step against online fraud, which cost individuals and businesses an estimated 169 billion roubles ($2bn) in the first eleven months of 2024. Yet, the justification appears tenuous: according to the Foundation for Public Opinion (FOM), 60 per cent of scams in Russia occur via ordinary phone calls; social media and messengers account for just 14 per cent.

Trump and Lukashenko: an unlikely tandem

By Nina Bachkatov

Thousands of ground troops and air force units took part in Zapad 2025, the large-scale military exercise held on Russian and Belarusian training grounds between 12 and 16 September. The manoeuvres came amid heightened tensions between Moscow and the West, as Russian drones crossed into Poland and Ukraine, fuelling fears that the drills might mask preparations for an assault on Ukraine’s northern borders.

Nato had only recently carried out its own exercise focused on defending the Suwałki corridor. Meanwhile, Russia’s Pacific Fleet concluded a command-post drill with submarines and coastal systems, and Nato was preparing to launch Neptune Strike in the Baltic Sea on 22 September, involving, among other vessels, the US Navy destroyer USS Bainbridge.

A Glut of Summits and a Lack of Substance

By Nina Bachkatov

If summits are a barometer of international relations, August and early September 2025 have been unusually busy. It began in Anchorage on 15 August, when President Trump warmly shook hands with President Putin—without extracting any concessions. The encounter alarmed President Zelensky, who rushed to Washington to set the record straight, backed by European allies keen to assert their weight and prevent another public humiliation of Ukraine’s leader by “Daddy Trump.” There were much flattery and thanks, but little substance.

After that, “historic summits” became a near-daily occurrence, often convened at short notice. There were duos, trios, quartets—an entire diplomatic orchestra—until President Macron called a “hybrid” summit in Paris on 4 September, with Zelensky in attendance. The self-styled “coalition of the willing” wanted to present its own plan after Trump had challenged them to do so. Hybrid in format (some leaders in person, others by video), it also mixed those with authority to deploy troops with EU officials who lacked such powers. At the last minute, they were joined by Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff.

Inflation, Jobs, and Resilience in Russia

By Nina Bachkatov

On 18 July, the European Union approved its 18th package of sanctions against Russia, expanding the list of Russian banks excluded from the SWIFT system and imposing a third round of sanctions on companies involved in trading Russian oil above the newly lowered price cap of $45 per barrel—down from $60 previously set by the G7. The objective remains unchanged since the first wave of sanctions in 2022: to deprive the Russian state budget of funds for financing the war, and to weaken the economy to the point where elites or the broader population might pressure President Vladimir Putin to end the conflict—or potentially push him from power.

Yet, the challenge has always been to strike a balance between weakening Russia and protecting the EU’s own economic stability—an issue that has never been adequately addressed. This tension partly explains the difficulties in formulating each successive sanctions package.

Nevertheless, sanctions are having an impact, a fact acknowledged increasingly by officials and even by Putin himself. Speaking at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum in June, he dismissed claims that the war was devastating the Russian economy, famously quoting Mark Twain: “The report of my death is greatly exaggerated.” He cited continued GDP growth, low public debt and economic diversification as evidence of resilience under pressure. However, he also warned that the economy risked cooling too sharply after two years of war-driven expansion. Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov echoed the concern, cautioning that Russia was “teetering on the edge of recession,” while business leaders presented sobering figures from their respective sectors.