INSIDE RUSSIA AND EURASIA – On-line Intelligence Bulletin of the European Press Agency

New and Old Twist of the Ukrainian War

By Nina Bachkatov

It has been described as an “asymmetric offensive,” in which Ukrainian forces—under pressure on the front line—have managed to shift the balance of power by striking deep into enemy territory. The operation showcased a combination of sophisticated technology, credible intelligence, and bold execution. It began on 31 May with a series of successful strikes on bridges and rail lines inside Russia, including some in occupied territory and at least one with civilian casualties.

The most dramatic act followed on 1 June: the so-called “Spider Web” operation, more reminiscent of a Hollywood script than a traditional military campaign. It involved simultaneous drone strikes against four military airfields located thousands of kilometres inside Russian territory, reportedly launched from within Russia itself. There were also reports of sabotage at a pillar of the Kerch Bridge, cyberattacks on a Russian strategic aviation manufacturer, and leaks of military planning. According to Ukraine’s security service (SBU), preparations for the operation had been underway for 18 months.

The Ukrainian Long Search for Peace

By Nina Bachkatov

The Russo-Ukrainian meeting in Istanbul on 16 May proved a diplomatic failure. Yet, both delegations made incremental progress on humanitarian issues, agreeing to a substantial 64th prisoner exchange involving not only military personnel but also civilians. The first exchange took place on 23 May.

Despite a momentary easing of tensions, hostilities resumed. Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted Moscow’s airports and struck vulnerable southern cities, while Russian drones and missiles targeted Kyiv, injuring several dozen people.

Nonetheless, both Kyiv and Moscow announced that they were preparing documents outlining conditions for a broader, long-term settlement. These would be exchanged once the prisoner transfers concluded. The move supports the argument by analysts that progress lies in building upon what works, rather than issuing ultimatums. The process also highlights the existence of discreet bilateral and multilateral diplomatic channels. While there is a risk that both armies may detain more prisoners to strengthen their bargaining positions, the current exchanges remain one of the few functioning points of contact.

V-Day 80: Ruptures More Than Unity

By Nina Bachkatov

Eighty years after the end of the Second World War, this year’s Victory Day commemorations were marked less by shared remembrance than by sharp geopolitical fractures. While honouring the millions who perished remains a moral imperative, the celebrations of May 2025 unfolded under the shadow of a world order in flux — and, some argue, in retreat.

Against the backdrop of a third year of war in Ukraine, the V-Day events served more to highlight divisions than to evoke unity. Former allies now face each other as strategic adversaries; familiar institutions appear strained, and proposals for a post-WWII-style settlement — one that might replace the fraying “rules-based international order” — remain conspicuously absent.

Russia Focuses on the East

by Nina Bachkatov

Russia’s pivot to the East has been quiet yet telling, reflecting its vision of the West chasing Moscow’s influence across the globe. On 17 April, in a closed session, Russia’s Supreme Court temporarily lifted the ban on the Afghan Taliban’s activities within Russia, revoking their 2003 designation as a terrorist organisation. The decision was first communicated in Kabul by Russia’s ambassador to Afghanistan, Dmitry Zhirnov, to the Taliban’s Foreign Minister. Five days later, Russia’s special envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, travelled to Kabul for a “special meeting” aimed at “removing hurdles”. The Taliban had first visited Moscow in an official capacity in November 2018, though informal channels—often involving Soviet and Afghan veterans—had remained open beforehand.

Putin and Trump’s Gambles

By Nina Bachkatov

At a two-day NATO summit in Brussels, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio sent an implicit message to President Vladimir Putin. “We will know in a few weeks if Russia wants peace,” he told delegates. The meeting’s agenda focused on European security, particularly in Ukraine, and on reassuring allies unnerved by President Trump’s apparent alignment with the Kremlin’s narrative. The summit was overshadowed by “Liberation Day,” during which Trump unveiled his latest salvo in the trade wars—tariffs targeting both allies and adversaries. European goods were hit with a 20 per cent levy, Chinese imports with 34 per cent, and Ukrainian products with 10 per cent. Russia, however, was spared—officially because, as the US Treasury noted, “we have no trade with it.”

Some Hopes for Peace, Somewhere in Caucasus

By Nina Bachkatov

With all attention focused on Ukraine, peace has discreetly made a step forward in South Caucasus. On 13 March, Azerbaijan and Armenia confirmed they had “completed the text of a peace agreement” which would end, if fully implemented, a conflict dating back to the late Soviet period. Episodes of this tragic relation include the unilateral declaration of independence by the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh in 1988; a first war resulting in Azerbaijani defeat and the expulsion of Azeris from Karabakh, and years of intermittent violence. In September 2020, having rebuilt his military capabilities thanks to energy revenues, President Aliyev launched the Second Karabakh War. After months of unequal fighting and a total blockade of the population, his army regained control of the breakaway region and re-established Azerbaijan’s entire Soviet-era frontier with Armenia. Some 120,000 Armenians fled a region they consider the cradle of Armenia.

Jeddah Diplomacy and the Shifting Dynamics of the Ukraine Conflict

By Nina Bachkatov

The publication of a joint communiqué following marathon discussions in Saudi Arabia has fuelled speculation about a potential shift in the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. The statement, reportedly based on an agreement proposed by the United States and accepted by Ukraine, is to be conveyed to Russia via American envoys. In return, Washington has resumed intelligence sharing and arms deliveries, ending a brief pause, with Poland confirming that stored weaponry was immediately dispatched. As part of the agreement, Ukraine has accepted a cease fire extending beyond air and maritime operations, as initially suggested by President Volodymyr Zelensky. Furthermore, Kyiv has consented to sign a long-debated agreement granting American entities access to its national resources.

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