Russia’s election under unprecedent control

By Nina Bachkatov

Rarely has an election, derided as a mere formality, garnered such extensive attention. From March 15th to 17th, Russian voters are tasked with selecting their next president from a slate of four candidates: the incumbent Vladimir Putin, Leonid Slutsky of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), Nikolai Kharitonov of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, and Vladislav Davankov of the New People Party. It is widely anticipated that Putin will secure victory in the first round, with predictions suggesting he will capture approximately 75% of the vote. Liberal factions have been significantly weakened through arrests, exile, and even fatalities.

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A third year of war on European soil

By Nina Bachkatov

It is uncommon to “commemorate” the invasion of a country still under occupation and subjected to daily bombings by its neighbour. However, the war in Ukraine has followed an unconventional pattern due to political and military fluctuations since February 2022. The stark reality is that no one has presented the “innovative” approach called for by General Zaluzhny in his notable December 2023 letter to the American magazine Time. This notion has been reiterated during commemorations to emphasise the inadequacy of persisting with the same approach, albeit with improved equipment and greater coordination. The fact is that the year 2023 did not unfold as anticipated, and the prospects for 2024 appear uncertain for both internal and international reasons.

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Vladimir the fifth

By Nina Bachkatov

On 8th February, Russia’s Central Electoral Commission unveiled the four candidates officially registered for the 15-17 March presidential election. They are: Vladimir Putin, running independently for a fifth term; Leonid Slutsky from the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR); Nikolai Kharitonov from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation; and Vladislav Davankov from the New People Party. Slutsky and Kharitonov, known figures within the “systemic” opposition, are expected to garner approximately 10% of the votes. Davankov’s candidacy comes as a surprise; at 39 years old, he is the youngest candidate and a member of a lesser-known party. Twenty-five political parties have been granted participation rights in the election.

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EU-UKRAINE:  Balancing Values and Economic Realities

By Nina Bachkatov

The EU summit on 1st February was anticipated to be challenging, with negotiations expected to extend until the last minute to mend the fallout from the inconclusive December summit. The primary agenda includes reaching an agreement on a revised 2021-2027 EU budget to support recovery, encompassing a 50-billion-euro four-year aid package to Ukraine, distinct from other forms of aid. The first requires unanimity among the 27 member states, while the second may face opposition from Hungary but could be legally maneuvered. Following the failure of the December EU summit and the postponement of an anticipated $61 billion military aid by the American Congress, President Zelensky initiated a diplomatic offensive in Europe and beyond, emphasizing the global significance of countering Russia in Ukraine. So far, the “allies” have contributed a total of $246 billion to Ukraine, covering arms, financial aid, and support for social needs on the ground, including refugees.

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No peace in sight in the Eastern front

By Nina Bachkatov

The year 2024 started with good news: 248 Russian and 224 Ukrainian soldiers were exchanged, the first since 7 August. In the meantime, as big prisoner exchanges had been frozen, the only way captured soldiers can make it back to their own side was, and still is, through informal battlefield swaps between commanders. This practice, and the discretion of military authorities, makes impossible any estimates of the number of POWs, certainly many thousands. Kyiv and Moscow claim that the ‘enemy’ is manipulating the prisoners’ issue for their own political motives. The families are less and less inhibited to question their respective authorities to accelerate the negotiations about exchanges – even if the released soldiers are sent back to the front.

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NKO Does not Exist Anymore

By Nina Bachkatov

From 23 to 27 October, the EU agendas will include a large chapter about the situation in the Caucasus, first at EU Ministerial level then during an EU summit. The problem is that the main regional conflict has been settled the oldest way, at gun point. On 19 September 2023, it took 24 hours for Azerbaijan forces to push the separatist armed forces to surrender. They had never recovered from the devastating 2020 “second war” when their soldiers were shot like rabbits by a restructured Azerbaijani army equipped with Turkish drones. Almost 2 years ago, this “44 days war” which costed 6.500 lives ended in 2 stages: on 10 October with a ceasefire negotiated by Russia which did not prevent fighting to continue, albeit at a lower intensity; and on 9 November 2020, when the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents signed an armistice agreement in Moscow. 

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From Ukraine to the Middle East: a Geopolitical Puzzle

By Nina Bachkatov

Since February 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky has demonstrated a knack for urging his allies to confront uncomfortable questions while maintaining an unusual level of sympathy in international relations. Even when allies disapproved of Ukraine’s undiplomatic approaches, they stood by their original commitment: “we will support Ukraine as long as it takes.” Zelensky’s rallying cry, asserting that Ukraine is not just fighting for its survival but protecting the entire European continent and beyond from a plot to destroy democracy, resonated strongly. However, a shift occurred when Hamas launched a brutal attack, killing civilians and taking hostages, leading Israel into a conflict with the group.

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