By Nina Bachkatov
A few hours before heading off for the summer break, EU ambassadors finally agreed on the 21st package of sanctions against Russia. The negotiations were difficult, reflecting an increasingly simple reality: after more than a decade of sanctions, new targets are becoming harder to find. But European policymakers remain convinced that sanctions are steadily eroding Russia’s capacity to wage war.
The first lists, adopted in 2014, were sometimes riddled with errors, including deceased individuals and confused patronymics. Today, Brussels relies on far more sophisticated intelligence and the net has widened dramatically, targeting relatives, subsidiaries, minority shareholders and companies supplying dual-use components. Yet after twenty-one packages, agreeing on fresh measures has become increasingly contentious. Many proposals originate in Ukraine—from ntelligence services, think tanks or lobbying networks—but translating them into legally robust and politically acceptable sanctions is becoming ever more difficult.
The first problem is timing. On the very day the EU agreed to keep the price cap on Russian oil exports to $44 a barrel, global oil prices climbed to $100. Such measures inevitably lose much of their intended impact when markets move faster than policymakers.
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