Category: Middle East

Zelensky Seeks Leverage as Attention Shifts Abroad

By Nina Bachkatov

On March 21, President Volodymyr Zelensky said talks between Ukrainian and American negotiators would continue for a second day, underlining the urgency of the moment. Timing has become critical. A trilateral meeting aimed at ending the war, scheduled to take place in Abu Dhabi on February 28, has been postponed indefinitely for obvious reasons. Zelensky went further, stating that he was “requiring” from Washington a “clear” timetable for the next round of negotiations with Russia.

What he described as a “political delegation” has been tasked with persuading its interlocutors, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, that Ukraine seeks peace—unlike Russia—and that it is therefore incumbent on the US to sustain diplomatic efforts.

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Russia’s Quiet Calculus as Conflict Expands in the Middle East

By Nina Bachkatov and Romain Constantin

From the first days of the war in Iran, President Vladimir Putin offered little more than formulaic statements — a response echoed by China and several members of the expanded BRICS grouping. Iran now sits in the organisation alongside Egypt, Ethiopia and Indonesia, as well as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, themselves now threatened by Iranian drones.

The easy conclusion would be that Russia’s muted reaction reflects weakness — an inability to support an ally in Iran as it once did in Syria, Venezuela or Cuba. But the reality may be more prosaic. Iran is an ally, not a friend. Their strategic partnership contains no mutual defence clause. The bilateral trade relationship is uneven, largely favouring Iranian firms, while Russian companies face obstacles through restrictive financial clearing mechanisms. Nor does the Kremlin appear eager to take diplomatic risks by openly defending a regime dominated by hardline clerics. Moscow’s earlier proposal to defuse the crisis by offering to store Iran’s enriched uranium lost much of its relevance after Israeli and US strikes on Iranian facilities.

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Middle East Angst — and More

By Nina Bachkatov

The American operation Midnight Hammer against Iran’s nuclear, military, and air defence installations has forced many external actors to abandon the discretion they adopted just a week earlier. This includes Russia and China, which issued a coordinated “firm condemnation” of the Israeli airstrikes following a phone call between Presidents Putin and Xi. Like many other world leaders, they initially hoped this would be a limited operation, lacking broader international backing, and urged a “political and diplomatic settlement”.

Their shared interests are clear: the preservation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty in a region where a nuclear-armed Iran would be destabilising; opposition to foreign-imposed regime change; and a common scepticism that any Iranian government, clerical or not, will fully abandon its military nuclear ambitions. Neither Moscow nor Beijing harbours particular sympathy for the Iranian regime, but both have vivid memories of Western-led interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria.

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From Ukraine to the Middle East: a Geopolitical Puzzle

By Nina Bachkatov

Since February 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky has demonstrated a knack for urging his allies to confront uncomfortable questions while maintaining an unusual level of sympathy in international relations. Even when allies disapproved of Ukraine’s undiplomatic approaches, they stood by their original commitment: “we will support Ukraine as long as it takes.” Zelensky’s rallying cry, asserting that Ukraine is not just fighting for its survival but protecting the entire European continent and beyond from a plot to destroy democracy, resonated strongly. However, a shift occurred when Hamas launched a brutal attack, killing civilians and taking hostages, leading Israel into a conflict with the group.

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The Syrian imbroglio – Putin’s cautious reaction to Western bombs

By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson

The Western intervention in Syria tested the “new” Vladimir Putin – between his reelection and inauguration. He seems much the same person, preparing for the next stage of political developments while not controlling fully the existing situation. There was not much he could have done to prevent the Western intervention. After the diatribes of president Trump, Russia raised the red flag on various fronts with declarations by a few generals, by the foreign minister and some ambassadors, by a few political figures, and by Putin himself – all making the expected statements, each in their roles. Continue reading “The Syrian imbroglio – Putin’s cautious reaction to Western bombs”

Sochi: another step towards a Syrian resolution

By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson

The main success of the Syrian National Dialogue Congress held on 30 January in Sochi is that it existed. Up to the last moment, Russian diplomats and experts doubted that the Congress would attract enough Syrian delegates to be credible. There was fears that it might be cancelled for a third time. Continue reading “Sochi: another step towards a Syrian resolution”

Syria provides a post-Soviet foothold

by Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson

The 50th edition of Strategic Survey of the International Institute for Strategic Studies includes a lively chapter on Russia’s entry into the Middle Eastern power scene, involving its relations with the United States over Syria. Continue reading “Syria provides a post-Soviet foothold”