China – INSIDE RUSSIA AND EURASIA

Ukraine Grapples with War and Budgetary Strain

By Nina Bachkatov

The fourth Ukraine Recovery Conference, held in Rome on 11 and 12 July, brought together Ukraine’s allies in yet another show of support for Kyiv. President Volodymyr Zelensky, in attendance once again, displayed his now-familiar ability to project optimism in the face of deepening adversity. His appeal focused on increased deliveries of military aid—especially air defence systems—and calls for further sanctions on Russia.

Despite these urgent pleas, the conference—comprising heads of state and government, international organisations, and business leaders—projected a united front committed to “the swift recovery and long-term reconstruction of Ukraine.” Yet such ambition stood in stark contrast to the realities on the ground: the war rages on, and even a ceasefire appears remote.

This particular gathering differed from the string of summits previously held under similar banners. Its context was more alarming: on the battlefield, Russia had launched unprecedented waves of drone and missile attacks on Kyiv and Western Ukraine—regions typically spared the worst. Though civilian casualties remained relatively low, the scale of destruction was vast, and the strain on the population has intensified.

Middle East Angst — and More

By Nina Bachkatov

The American operation Midnight Hammer against Iran’s nuclear, military, and air defence installations has forced many external actors to abandon the discretion they adopted just a week earlier. This includes Russia and China, which issued a coordinated “firm condemnation” of the Israeli airstrikes following a phone call between Presidents Putin and Xi. Like many other world leaders, they initially hoped this would be a limited operation, lacking broader international backing, and urged a “political and diplomatic settlement”.

Their shared interests are clear: the preservation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty in a region where a nuclear-armed Iran would be destabilising; opposition to foreign-imposed regime change; and a common scepticism that any Iranian government, clerical or not, will fully abandon its military nuclear ambitions. Neither Moscow nor Beijing harbours particular sympathy for the Iranian regime, but both have vivid memories of Western-led interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria.

Russia Focuses on the East

by Nina Bachkatov

Russia’s pivot to the East has been quiet yet telling, reflecting its vision of the West chasing Moscow’s influence across the globe. On 17 April, in a closed session, Russia’s Supreme Court temporarily lifted the ban on the Afghan Taliban’s activities within Russia, revoking their 2003 designation as a terrorist organisation. The decision was first communicated in Kabul by Russia’s ambassador to Afghanistan, Dmitry Zhirnov, to the Taliban’s Foreign Minister. Five days later, Russia’s special envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, travelled to Kabul for a “special meeting” aimed at “removing hurdles”. The Taliban had first visited Moscow in an official capacity in November 2018, though informal channels—often involving Soviet and Afghan veterans—had remained open beforehand.

Lucerne: Zelensky’s diplomatic challenge

By Nina Bachkatov

A “Peace Summit” in Ukraine will be held in Switzerland on June 15-16, following a request made by President Zelensky in January. The Ukrainian president expects participants to discuss the 10-point peace plan he presented to President Biden in December 2022, and subsequently to the G7, G20, and other international organisations, when the military situation was more favorable. Now, with the expectation that the war might extend to 2025 or beyond, this meeting poses a significant diplomatic challenge for Zelensky. He envisions a global pro-Ukrainian, anti-Russian bloc, including not only Western allies but also states that have so far maintained an ambiguous neutrality.

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A Long Year for Ukraine and the World

By Nina Bachkatov

The 24 January passed on without the anticipated Russian offensive. In the Western world, thousands of people took the streets to express solidarity with the Ukrainian people. Their leaders promised again to be on Ukraine’s side “up to the end”, “the time it will take”. In Kiev, Volodymyr Zelensky attended low key ceremonies focused on prayers for the victims and thanks to the fighters. A year after the invasion, peace seems a distant reality, an issue that will be decided on the battlefield. This conviction is reinforced by the slow effects of the economic war, with its sanctions and counter-sanctions, declared by the West to limit the Kremlin’s capacity to finance its war. Now the accent is still on broader sanctions, but the accent is back to military aspects, notably the delivery of arms requested by Ukraine to push Russians out by its own forces. In those conditions, diplomacy is relegated to the sideline, albeit some discreet channels stay open, witnessed for instance by the regular exchanges of prisoners. In fact, nobody wants to expose itself as the one that will raise a white flag, while staying on the save side by talking about the need to keep contacts with Russia.

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Pages: 12

Putin and coronavirus face to face

By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson

The attack of a virus coming from China exposed that Russians are not the different species that some Western media like to picture them. Faced with the epidemic, Russians reacted the same way that others. First with indifference “much ado about nothing” and cockiness “we need more to be alarmed”. Then, when it circled closer and closer, a majority of Russians concluded that the authorities were just lying and rush to social medias to stuff themselves with conspiration theories and extravagant recipes to fight the infection. Continue reading “Putin and coronavirus face to face”

Russia and China, a New Model of Great-Power Relations

By Nina Bachkatov

The continuing calm of Chinese-Russia relations is the subject of a recent study in Survival (Survival, Feb.-Mar. 2017), the bi-monthly journal of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The article’s writers* focus on the way in which the two countries have avoided any turbulence that might have resulted from their imbalanced economic and strategic relationship. Continue reading “Russia and China, a New Model of Great-Power Relations”