Nato – INSIDE RUSSIA AND EURASIA

Ukraine War: Negotiations Under Bombs

By Nina Bachkatov

There was little to expect from the trilateral summit in Geneva beyond the fact that it took place and ended without drama. Ukraine and Russia described the meeting as “difficult” — diplomatic shorthand for an inability to move forward on the two recurring obstacles: security guarantees and territorial questions. Still, Ukraine’s chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, and later President Volodymyr Zelensky, hinted at possible progress on the concept of a demilitarised zone. The devil will be in the detail, but at least the discussion is inching forward.

Both sides travelled to Geneva largely to signal goodwill about ending the war. Above all, however, they are anxious to keep President Donald Trump engaged — as are NATO and individual European governments. They fear that the multiplicity of crises, some of his own making, could distract Trump from Ukraine in particular and Europe more broadly.

War in Ukraine Reshaping Russia’s State System

By Nina Bachkatov and Romain Constantin

On January 19, Russia’s presidential administration and the ruling United Russia party announced the figures who will lead the party’s campaign for the September 2026 parliamentary elections — the first national ballot since the launch of the “special military operation” in Ukraine. The five-man list includes former president Dmitry Medvedev and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, both advocates of a hardline foreign policy; two Heroes of Russia active in patriotic youth movements; and a Hero of Labour who is a prominent war correspondent.

The move could result in veterans accounting for up to one-fifth of the 450-seat State Duma and nearly one-third of United Russia’s parliamentary group. But similar advantages were extended to veterans ahead of the 2023–24 regional and local elections, with limited success: few candidates were elected, and many faced resistance from entrenched local elites accustomed to distributing candidacies among themselves.

Pandora’s Blades: Drones Redefine Security in Europe

By Nina Bachkatov and Romain Constantin

The use of drones has shifted from anecdotal to essential in modern warfare, largely due to the war in Ukraine. No one speaks any more of a “war of another time”, with soldiers in trenches and artillery barrages. Over the course of the conflict, drones have become indispensable on land, at sea, and in the air. They are used for everything from kamikaze strikes and aerial bombardments to delivering supplies, scattering leaflets, conducting reconnaissance, and even engaging in drone-on-drone combat. It has become an industry in its own right, as shown by the increasing number of media reports on the Ukrainian war appearing as frequently in financial pages as in international ones.

From the very first days of the conflict in February 2022, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) began to play a crucial role on the battlefield. The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 gained early renown for striking Russian military equipment with remarkable precision. Its success was amplified by video footage captured by the drones themselves—images that quickly became defining visuals of the war and a powerful tool of information warfare.

Trump and Lukashenko: an unlikely tandem

By Nina Bachkatov

Thousands of ground troops and air force units took part in Zapad 2025, the large-scale military exercise held on Russian and Belarusian training grounds between 12 and 16 September. The manoeuvres came amid heightened tensions between Moscow and the West, as Russian drones crossed into Poland and Ukraine, fuelling fears that the drills might mask preparations for an assault on Ukraine’s northern borders.

Nato had only recently carried out its own exercise focused on defending the Suwałki corridor. Meanwhile, Russia’s Pacific Fleet concluded a command-post drill with submarines and coastal systems, and Nato was preparing to launch Neptune Strike in the Baltic Sea on 22 September, involving, among other vessels, the US Navy destroyer USS Bainbridge.

A Glut of Summits and a Lack of Substance

By Nina Bachkatov

If summits are a barometer of international relations, August and early September 2025 have been unusually busy. It began in Anchorage on 15 August, when President Trump warmly shook hands with President Putin—without extracting any concessions. The encounter alarmed President Zelensky, who rushed to Washington to set the record straight, backed by European allies keen to assert their weight and prevent another public humiliation of Ukraine’s leader by “Daddy Trump.” There were much flattery and thanks, but little substance.

After that, “historic summits” became a near-daily occurrence, often convened at short notice. There were duos, trios, quartets—an entire diplomatic orchestra—until President Macron called a “hybrid” summit in Paris on 4 September, with Zelensky in attendance. The self-styled “coalition of the willing” wanted to present its own plan after Trump had challenged them to do so. Hybrid in format (some leaders in person, others by video), it also mixed those with authority to deploy troops with EU officials who lacked such powers. At the last minute, they were joined by Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff.

New and Old Twist of the Ukrainian War

By Nina Bachkatov

It has been described as an “asymmetric offensive,” in which Ukrainian forces—under pressure on the front line—have managed to shift the balance of power by striking deep into enemy territory. The operation showcased a combination of sophisticated technology, credible intelligence, and bold execution. It began on 31 May with a series of successful strikes on bridges and rail lines inside Russia, including some in occupied territory and at least one with civilian casualties.

The most dramatic act followed on 1 June: the so-called “Spider Web” operation, more reminiscent of a Hollywood script than a traditional military campaign. It involved simultaneous drone strikes against four military airfields located thousands of kilometres inside Russian territory, reportedly launched from within Russia itself. There were also reports of sabotage at a pillar of the Kerch Bridge, cyberattacks on a Russian strategic aviation manufacturer, and leaks of military planning. According to Ukraine’s security service (SBU), preparations for the operation had been underway for 18 months.

From Munich to Riyadh: More Than Just the Ukraine Test For E.U.

By Nina Bachkatov

A week of geopolitical upheaval has dramatically altered how Ukraine and its allies intended to mark the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The catalyst was former President Donald Trump’s blunt revelation that he had spoken for 90 minutes with Russian President Vladimir Putin—an announcement that came as a complete surprise to both Ukraine and the European Union, who were only informed after the fact. Trump’s message was unambiguous: Ukraine will not join NATO; the United States will not deploy troops but supports European nations doing so; Russia will retain control over occupied territories; and American assistance to Ukraine will be dictated by U.S. financial interests. Moreover, Washington and Moscow would hold further talks in Saudi Arabia.