Category: Armenia

Three Caucasus, Three Balancing Acts: Between Russia, Europe and Trump’s Route

By Nina Bachkatov

The South Caucasus is often described as a single geopolitical space. On the ground, however, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are pursuing markedly different strategies—shaped by geography, recent wars, domestic politics and very different relationships with Russia, the European Union and the United States.

The contrast was visible in September, when EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Magdalena Grono, joined a 150-strong diplomatic delegation visiting Karabakh and East Zangezur, at the invitation of Azerbaijan. It was her first visit to the territories since the 2020 war. The delegation visited reconstruction projects, met local officials and former displaced residents, and saw religious and historical sites presented by Baku as sites of “Caucasian Albanian heritage”, not Armenian. Two days later, in Yerevan, Grono visited the Matenadaran, Armenia’s repository of ancient manuscripts, and stressed that the preservation of cultural heritage was an essential part of the peace process and an EU value. But she did not meet the prime minister.

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Armenia Tests the Limits of Post-Soviet Alliances

By Nina Bachkatov and Romain Constantin

On April 1, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to the Kremlin underscored both the fragility of the “peace in the Caucasus” framework and the enduring complexity of post-Soviet institutions, more than three decades after the collapse of the USSR. Armenia has long been a pillar of the evolving structures that emerged from the Commonwealth of Independent States, from economic integration—most recently through the Eurasian Economic Union—to military coordination within the Collective Security Treaty Organisation.

The backdrop has shifted. The war in Iran now threatens all three South Caucasus states, particularly landlocked Armenia. Against this backdrop, Mr Pashinyan and Russian president Vladimir Putin appeared jointly before the press prior to their talks—an unusual move. Their remarks followed familiar diplomatic formulas, yet the tone was notably more direct than in the past.

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Some Hopes for Peace, Somewhere in Caucasus

By Nina Bachkatov

With all attention focused on Ukraine, peace has discreetly made a step forward in South Caucasus. On 13 March, Azerbaijan and Armenia confirmed they had “completed the text of a peace agreement” which would end, if fully implemented, a conflict dating back to the late Soviet period. Episodes of this tragic relation include the unilateral declaration of independence by the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh in 1988; a first war resulting in Azerbaijani defeat and the expulsion of Azeris from Karabakh, and years of intermittent violence. In September 2020, having rebuilt his military capabilities thanks to energy revenues, President Aliyev launched the Second Karabakh War. After months of unequal fighting and a total blockade of the population, his army regained control of the breakaway region and re-established Azerbaijan’s entire Soviet-era frontier with Armenia. Some 120,000 Armenians fled a region they consider the cradle of Armenia.

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EU Takes Further Steps in Caucasus – Amid Risks

By Nina Bachkatov

In a matter of weeks, Armenia and Azerbaijan are poised to engage deeply in negotiations over border delineation, aiming to quell three decades of conflict regarding Nagorno-Karabakh, where repeated rounds of talks have proven fruitless. Despite the involvement of various regional powers, including Russia, Iran, and Turkey, the European Union has also sought to contribute. However, the EU has struggled to reconcile its role as just one actor among many in the former Soviet Union, including the Caucasus. The complexity of the situation on the ground, often underestimated from Brussels, underscores the potential for even minor actions to trigger significant internal and external ramifications.

Nevertheless, the EU possesses a specific mechanism for engagement through the Eastern Partnership (E.P.), which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Established at the Prague summit in May 2009, the E.P. offers additional funding in exchange for reforms in countries. Belarus has been removed from the list due to President Lukashenko’s regime; Ukraine and Moldova have pursued distinct paths.

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NKO Does not Exist Anymore

By Nina Bachkatov

From 23 to 27 October, the EU agendas will include a large chapter about the situation in the Caucasus, first at EU Ministerial level then during an EU summit. The problem is that the main regional conflict has been settled the oldest way, at gun point. On 19 September 2023, it took 24 hours for Azerbaijan forces to push the separatist armed forces to surrender. They had never recovered from the devastating 2020 “second war” when their soldiers were shot like rabbits by a restructured Azerbaijani army equipped with Turkish drones. Almost 2 years ago, this “44 days war” which costed 6.500 lives ended in 2 stages: on 10 October with a ceasefire negotiated by Russia which did not prevent fighting to continue, albeit at a lower intensity; and on 9 November 2020, when the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents signed an armistice agreement in Moscow. 

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