Economics – INSIDE RUSSIA AND EURASIA

EU’s Sanctions Meet a Changing World

By Nina Bachkatov

A few hours before heading off for the summer break, EU ambassadors finally agreed on the 21st package of sanctions against Russia. The negotiations were difficult, reflecting an increasingly simple reality: after more than a decade of sanctions, new targets are becoming harder to find. But European policymakers remain convinced that sanctions are steadily eroding Russia’s capacity to wage war.

The first lists, adopted in 2014, were sometimes riddled with errors, including deceased individuals and confused patronymics. Today, Brussels relies on far more sophisticated intelligence and the net has widened dramatically, targeting relatives, subsidiaries, minority shareholders and companies supplying dual-use components. Yet after twenty-one packages, agreeing on fresh measures has become increasingly contentious. Many proposals originate in Ukraine—from ntelligence services, think tanks or lobbying networks—but translating them into legally robust and politically acceptable sanctions is becoming ever more difficult.

The first problem is timing. On the very day the EU agreed to keep the price cap on Russian oil exports to $44 a barrel, global oil prices climbed to $100. Such measures inevitably lose much of their intended impact when markets move faster than policymakers.

A War without End – And Shifting Priorities

By Nina Bachkatov, with Romain Constantin

After more than four years of death and destruction, the initial sense of urgency has given way to a degree of normalisation, with the war in Ukraine increasingly reduced to daily tallies of losses on both sides. International attention has shifted — to Lebanon, the Strait of Hormuz, and economic tensions in the Asia-Pacific that could affect western economies. At the same time, EU institutions and national governments are struggling to support businesses and households from already stretched budgets.

For President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, this marks a renewed form of the feared “Ukraine fatigue”, partly alleviated by the approval of a €90bn EU loan — notably financing rather than aid. The funds will help sustain Ukraine’s war effort and Zelenskyy’s leadership. In return, Kyiv has agreed to repair damage to the Druzhba pipeline, which carries Russian oil to Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.

Zelensky Seeks Leverage as Attention Shifts Abroad

By Nina Bachkatov

On March 21, President Volodymyr Zelensky said talks between Ukrainian and American negotiators would continue for a second day, underlining the urgency of the moment. Timing has become critical. A trilateral meeting aimed at ending the war, scheduled to take place in Abu Dhabi on February 28, has been postponed indefinitely for obvious reasons. Zelensky went further, stating that he was “requiring” from Washington a “clear” timetable for the next round of negotiations with Russia.

What he described as a “political delegation” has been tasked with persuading its interlocutors, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, that Ukraine seeks peace—unlike Russia—and that it is therefore incumbent on the US to sustain diplomatic efforts.

Russia’s Messaging Platforms at a Crossroads

By Nina Bachkatov and Romain Constantin

When Russia’s communications regulator Roskomnadzor ordered restrictions on WhatsApp and Telegram calls on 13 August 2025, it marked a new escalation in the state’s long campaign to bring foreign tech platforms to heel. The move targeted Russia’s two most popular messaging services – used by 57 and 46 per cent of the population respectively – and followed weeks of speculation in Moscow’s political circles.

Authorities framed the decision as a step against online fraud, which cost individuals and businesses an estimated 169 billion roubles ($2bn) in the first eleven months of 2024. Yet, the justification appears tenuous: according to the Foundation for Public Opinion (FOM), 60 per cent of scams in Russia occur via ordinary phone calls; social media and messengers account for just 14 per cent.

Ukraine: Reconstruction Amid Ongoing Conflict

By Nina Bachkatov

Daily devastation and loss of life persist in Ukraine as the counter-offensive rages on, with no decisive outcome at present. Optimists are now openly acknowledging the possibility of military operations continuing until 2024 or longer. Despite the ongoing war with no end in sight, the urgent issue of reconstruction has become a paramount concern for Ukraine’s survival, placing the burden on the ‘Friends of Ukraine’ group. This paradoxical situation might be a way for the West to reframe its unwavering support for Ukraine, extending far beyond military assistance.

Since the fall of Kherson in September 22 and subsequent events in spring 23, even with the supply of sophisticated offensive weapons, the expected counter-offensive failed to materialise, leaving Kiev unable to negotiate from a position of strength. Additionally, public expressions of frustration emerged during the NATO Vilnius summit between Ukrainian and Western representatives. More recently, Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory and escalating tensions in the Black Sea have further complicated the situation.

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Pages: 12

Davos, G7, G20: Russia left aside

By Nina Bachkatov

The absence of the Russians at the Davos Forum has underlined the country’s isolation, and has been celebrated as such by the West. Earlier, members of the G7 and G20 had already been meeting without president Putin or Russian high-level officials. But it did not prevent Moscow’s dignitaries to crisscross the world to engage all those who do not believe in the Western declared goals. Lately, Westerners’ sources have begun to question the claims that Russia is an international pariah and that the world at large has some appetite for more sanctions. Hence the apparition of a new narrative, still a minority, according to which Russia is indeed isolated from the West, but not from the world.

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Another year EU-Russia energy war

By Nina Bachkatov

According to European leaders’, the sanctions against Russian energy producers and exporters have reached their goals – depleting Russian’s national budget, which depends for almost half from energy’s trade, and finances the war in Ukraine. They rejoice that those sanctions provided EU with an incitant to drastically reform its energy sector. But that leaves open the question concerning the intermediary period, which will start in early 2023, especially if the West is not backed by other countries. Despite pressures, a majority of states still refuse to join sanctions that might threat their national interests, and are not ready to threat Vladimir Putin as the pariah president of a failed state. They also see the present crisis as an opportunity to increase their shares of the global market and their geopolitical profiles, to diversify their investments and their industrial basis.

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Pages: 12