Ukraine – INSIDE RUSSIA AND EURASIA

Ukraine Grapples with War and Budgetary Strain

By Nina Bachkatov

The fourth Ukraine Recovery Conference, held in Rome on 11 and 12 July, brought together Ukraine’s allies in yet another show of support for Kyiv. President Volodymyr Zelensky, in attendance once again, displayed his now-familiar ability to project optimism in the face of deepening adversity. His appeal focused on increased deliveries of military aid—especially air defence systems—and calls for further sanctions on Russia.

Despite these urgent pleas, the conference—comprising heads of state and government, international organisations, and business leaders—projected a united front committed to “the swift recovery and long-term reconstruction of Ukraine.” Yet such ambition stood in stark contrast to the realities on the ground: the war rages on, and even a ceasefire appears remote.

This particular gathering differed from the string of summits previously held under similar banners. Its context was more alarming: on the battlefield, Russia had launched unprecedented waves of drone and missile attacks on Kyiv and Western Ukraine—regions typically spared the worst. Though civilian casualties remained relatively low, the scale of destruction was vast, and the strain on the population has intensified.

New and Old Twist of the Ukrainian War

By Nina Bachkatov

It has been described as an “asymmetric offensive,” in which Ukrainian forces—under pressure on the front line—have managed to shift the balance of power by striking deep into enemy territory. The operation showcased a combination of sophisticated technology, credible intelligence, and bold execution. It began on 31 May with a series of successful strikes on bridges and rail lines inside Russia, including some in occupied territory and at least one with civilian casualties.

The most dramatic act followed on 1 June: the so-called “Spider Web” operation, more reminiscent of a Hollywood script than a traditional military campaign. It involved simultaneous drone strikes against four military airfields located thousands of kilometres inside Russian territory, reportedly launched from within Russia itself. There were also reports of sabotage at a pillar of the Kerch Bridge, cyberattacks on a Russian strategic aviation manufacturer, and leaks of military planning. According to Ukraine’s security service (SBU), preparations for the operation had been underway for 18 months.

The Ukrainian Long Search for Peace

By Nina Bachkatov

The Russo-Ukrainian meeting in Istanbul on 16 May proved a diplomatic failure. Yet, both delegations made incremental progress on humanitarian issues, agreeing to a substantial 64th prisoner exchange involving not only military personnel but also civilians. The first exchange took place on 23 May.

Despite a momentary easing of tensions, hostilities resumed. Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted Moscow’s airports and struck vulnerable southern cities, while Russian drones and missiles targeted Kyiv, injuring several dozen people.

Nonetheless, both Kyiv and Moscow announced that they were preparing documents outlining conditions for a broader, long-term settlement. These would be exchanged once the prisoner transfers concluded. The move supports the argument by analysts that progress lies in building upon what works, rather than issuing ultimatums. The process also highlights the existence of discreet bilateral and multilateral diplomatic channels. While there is a risk that both armies may detain more prisoners to strengthen their bargaining positions, the current exchanges remain one of the few functioning points of contact.

Putin and Trump’s Gambles

By Nina Bachkatov

At a two-day NATO summit in Brussels, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio sent an implicit message to President Vladimir Putin. “We will know in a few weeks if Russia wants peace,” he told delegates. The meeting’s agenda focused on European security, particularly in Ukraine, and on reassuring allies unnerved by President Trump’s apparent alignment with the Kremlin’s narrative. The summit was overshadowed by “Liberation Day,” during which Trump unveiled his latest salvo in the trade wars—tariffs targeting both allies and adversaries. European goods were hit with a 20 per cent levy, Chinese imports with 34 per cent, and Ukrainian products with 10 per cent. Russia, however, was spared—officially because, as the US Treasury noted, “we have no trade with it.”

Jeddah Diplomacy and the Shifting Dynamics of the Ukraine Conflict

By Nina Bachkatov

The publication of a joint communiqué following marathon discussions in Saudi Arabia has fuelled speculation about a potential shift in the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. The statement, reportedly based on an agreement proposed by the United States and accepted by Ukraine, is to be conveyed to Russia via American envoys. In return, Washington has resumed intelligence sharing and arms deliveries, ending a brief pause, with Poland confirming that stored weaponry was immediately dispatched. As part of the agreement, Ukraine has accepted a cease fire extending beyond air and maritime operations, as initially suggested by President Volodymyr Zelensky. Furthermore, Kyiv has consented to sign a long-debated agreement granting American entities access to its national resources.

From Munich to Riyadh: More Than Just the Ukraine Test For E.U.

By Nina Bachkatov

A week of geopolitical upheaval has dramatically altered how Ukraine and its allies intended to mark the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The catalyst was former President Donald Trump’s blunt revelation that he had spoken for 90 minutes with Russian President Vladimir Putin—an announcement that came as a complete surprise to both Ukraine and the European Union, who were only informed after the fact. Trump’s message was unambiguous: Ukraine will not join NATO; the United States will not deploy troops but supports European nations doing so; Russia will retain control over occupied territories; and American assistance to Ukraine will be dictated by U.S. financial interests. Moreover, Washington and Moscow would hold further talks in Saudi Arabia.

Another step out of Russia

By Nina Bachkatov

President Zelensky hailed as “historic” the cessation of Russian gas exports through Ukraine on January 1. The five-year transit contract, signed at the end of 2019, had been maintained even after Russia’s invasion, as Ukraine sought to “demonstrate its reliability as a partner to Europe”. On 19st December 2024, President Zelensky confirmed that the contract would not be renewed, stating it was a move aimed at undermining Russia’s war effort. However, he said little about the potential economic consequences for Ukraine, including the loss of transit fees, the inability to siphon deliveries en route to the EU as in the past, and the heightened risk of Russian attacks on pipeline infrastructure. He also categorically ruled out transporting Russian gas disguised as Azerbaijani via Ukrainian pipelines.

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