On-line Intelligence Bulletin of the European Press Agency
By Nina Bachkatov
The book of former American president Obama, “A promised land” is a publisher’s dream, selling millions of copies through the world, at a moment when the foreign policy of his former vice-president, now elected president Biden, is everyone guess. Notably about Washington’s future relation with Moscow. Continue reading “Obama’s message to Russia”
By Nina Bachkatov
President Putin did not follow many world leaders, including Europeans, who rushed to congratulate American elected president Joe Biden. Russia, and China, have decided to play the legalist card, waiting for the publication of official results. Doing so, both countries wanted to profile themselves as international players who are a class in their own. Regularly accused of “managing” their elections and infringing human rights, they were in their view, contrary to the preachers of democracy, showing respect for voters’ choices. Continue reading “Post-Trump Russia”
By Nina Bachkatov
Events in Belarus and Kyrgyzstan prompted references to “coloured revolutions”, an expression forged in 2003 when the first peaceful “revolution”, in Georgia, replaced the old guard inherited from the Soviet period by a new Western trained generation. A year later, the same pattern was used in Ukraine, then in Kyrgyzstan in 2005. Continue reading “The enduring myth of coloured revolutions”
By Nina Bachkatov
With all eyes on Belarus, the latest eruption of violence in the Caucasus came as a shock. But, in fact, both crises were highly predictable due to internal and geopolitical complexities. At least they sent a strong signal to the West about the importance of geography and history over ideology. They highlight the danger of reducing the world affairs to a simplistic opposition between pro-Western and pro-Russian forces. Continue reading “Belarus – Armenia dilemnas”
By Nina Bachkatov
Whatever might happen in Belarus, the crisis that shacked the country is teaching lessons about the limits of antidemocratic regimes and the limits of outsiders’ influence. Weeks after his disputed reelection, Alexandr Lukashenko, president since 1994, is still confronted to an unusual form of contestation while his opponents face a president unwilling to follow the path of former Ukrainian president Yanukovich. Continue reading “Belarus lessons”
By Nina Bachkatov & Andrew Wilson
President Putin expressed his satisfaction after a constitutional referendum that was a personal success, despite doubts about the conditions of votes or the organisation of the campaign. In the same time, the referendum tested the opposition, reshaping the border between the “non-systemic opposition” (the “liberal” opposition outside the system) and the “systemic opposition” (that takes part in the Duma and has generally backed Putin’s legislation). Continue reading “A second constitutional referendum – in the streets of Russia”
By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson
On 3 July 2020, Russian president Vladimir Putin signed the decree allowing the publication of the new Constitution including modifications approved by the popular referendum. The vote had lasted a week, ending with what the Kremlin called a huge victory: 77,92% of voters approved those modifications. Vladimir Putin concluded “Russian citizens made their choice”. The peculiarity of this referendum is that it was not needed. Already in March, Parliament has voted all the surprise constitutional amendments proposed by the president in January. Continue reading “A very Russian referendum”
By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson
The countries of Central Asia have been tested as never since independence by the Covid19 that confronted them all with decades old national, regional and international questions. It also exposed their poor sanitary conditions and the huge gaps in health services between poor, especially in rural area, and the millionaires who have access to modern institutions. At least, this time, they could not go abroad for treatment. Continue reading “Covid 19 tests Central Asia”
By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson
If Vladimir Putin wanted to vindicate those who accuse him of hijacking the celebrations of 9 May for political and personal reasons, he could hardly have done better than announcing two successive postponements. The main motive was of course the coronavirus epidemy, still out of control in early May. Putin decided wisely to cancel an event dragging millions of people through the country’s streets. The event was replaced by a low-key ceremony on the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, under the walls of the Kremlin, where Putin bowed his head in respect to the 28 million Soviet citizens who lost their lives during WWII. Instead of a military parade on Red Square, jets and helicopters flew over Moscow. Continue reading “Different dates, same politic”
By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson
In Ukraine, the epidemic of coronavirus erupted as president Zelensky was facing unfavourable media coverage for his first year in power. To put oil in the fire, he choose this moment to launch a clumsy invitation to Mikheil Saakashvili to join the government as deputy prime minister responsible for reforms. A measure reflecting his desperate search to start much-delayed reforms, but also that exposed his lack of political control, including on the ruling party Servant of the People. Continue reading “President Zelensky: sympathetic, but disapointing”