INSIDE RUSSIA AND EURASIA – On-line Intelligence Bulletin of the European Press Agency

War in the social media era

By Nina Bachkatov and Romain Constantin

On February 2 2026, a video circulated on the pro-Russian Telegram channel Voin DV bearing the caption: “Units of the Vostok Battle Group liberated the settlement of Pridorozhnoe.” The footage shows a succession of drone shots capturing the assault, bombardment and eventual seizure of the single street and handful of houses of this tiny settlement of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region.

The capture of Pridorozhnoe was not, in itself, strategically significant. It merely marked another incremental step in Russia’s grinding local advance. The manner in which it was communicated, however, is notable as an illustration of a new model of wartime communication that has gradually taken shape during the conflict in Ukraine, on both sides

War in Ukraine Reshaping Russia’s State System

By Nina Bachkatov and Romain Constantin

On January 19, Russia’s presidential administration and the ruling United Russia party announced the figures who will lead the party’s campaign for the September 2026 parliamentary elections — the first national ballot since the launch of the “special military operation” in Ukraine. The five-man list includes former president Dmitry Medvedev and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, both advocates of a hardline foreign policy; two Heroes of Russia active in patriotic youth movements; and a Hero of Labour who is a prominent war correspondent.

The move could result in veterans accounting for up to one-fifth of the 450-seat State Duma and nearly one-third of United Russia’s parliamentary group. But similar advantages were extended to veterans ahead of the 2023–24 regional and local elections, with limited success: few candidates were elected, and many faced resistance from entrenched local elites accustomed to distributing candidacies among themselves.

STRANGE PEACEMAKERS

By Nina Bachkatov

The American intervention in Venezuela has reverberated far beyond Latin America, including in Ukraine, and was the unspoken backdrop to the 6 January gathering in Paris of 35 representatives of the Coalition of the Willing. The sight of Nicolás Maduro in shackles before the world’s cameras was greeted with quiet satisfaction in Kyiv, if only because he had been a Russian ally. Some Ukrainians briefly imagined Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin gripped by the fear that he, too, might one day share Maduro’s fate.

That moment of schadenfreude was short-lived. What if Donald Trump were to send marines not to Moscow but to Kyiv, to depose what he might label an “illegal president” of a “corrupt country” unwilling to accept his grand peace designs?

Peace Plans for Ukraine – Trump in Majesty

By Nina Bachkatov

From plans to counter-plans, last-minute mini-summits, telephone or video round tables, the salami-slicing diplomacy deployed in the search for an end to the war in Ukraine has quickly shown its limits. One problem is that it involves too many actors with divergent — sometimes contradictory — interests, many keener to appear in the picture than to contribute to a solution. Another is that it lays bare the agony of traditional diplomacy in an age of instant media exposure.

No Thanksgiving for Ukraine

By Nina Bachkatov

Thanksgiving has passed. President Donald Trump pardoned two turkeys rather than the traditional one, but his 28-point peace plan — which he intended President Volodymyr Zelensky to sign by the holiday — has met a barrage of criticism and accusations of capitulation to Vladimir Putin. Nonetheless, it has triggered a flurry of diplomatic activity far beyond the four parties directly involved in the search for a settlement — Kyiv, Moscow, Washington and the EU. The plan has been taken seriously further afield, as shown by offers of mediation or safe venues for talks from Turkey, Arab capitals and even Belarus.

Trump’s initiative, reworked into a 19-point document drafted jointly by Ukrainian and US officials, remains at the centre of discussions. It contains two so-called “details” left for “further talks” — an odd label given they concern core issues such as security guarantees for Ukraine and territorial questions. Whatever happens, it will not be resolved tomorrow. In the meantime, the length of the war has reshaped public attitudes, political dynamics and financial calculations. These shifts are reflected in the composition of the negotiating delegations and the distribution of responsibilities among them. Yet in the end, the decisions lie with Trump, Putin and Zelensky.

Pandora’s Blades: Drones Redefine Security in Europe

By Nina Bachkatov and Romain Constantin

The use of drones has shifted from anecdotal to essential in modern warfare, largely due to the war in Ukraine. No one speaks any more of a “war of another time”, with soldiers in trenches and artillery barrages. Over the course of the conflict, drones have become indispensable on land, at sea, and in the air. They are used for everything from kamikaze strikes and aerial bombardments to delivering supplies, scattering leaflets, conducting reconnaissance, and even engaging in drone-on-drone combat. It has become an industry in its own right, as shown by the increasing number of media reports on the Ukrainian war appearing as frequently in financial pages as in international ones.

From the very first days of the conflict in February 2022, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) began to play a crucial role on the battlefield. The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 gained early renown for striking Russian military equipment with remarkable precision. Its success was amplified by video footage captured by the drones themselves—images that quickly became defining visuals of the war and a powerful tool of information warfare.

The Reality Behind the Summits on Ukraine

By Nina Bachkatov

The recent meeting between President Trump and President Xi was expected, in some quarters, to mark the moment when Washington would pressure Beijing to in turn pressure Moscow into accepting a “just peace” in Ukraine. Instead, it highlighted the limits of that expectation. The two leaders announced only that they would “do something together” on Ukraine. There was no mention of secondary sanctions should China continue to support Russia’s war effort. Taiwan, the other major strategic question in the room, was left untouched.

The encounter was consistent with the broader pattern of Trump’s tour of South and South-East Asia during the ASEAN summit in Malaysia. Trade dominated every bilateral exchange. Trump arrived buoyed by what he characterised as diplomatic success in the Middle East and presided over a symbolic peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia. He authorised South Korea to build a nuclear submarine. Leaders offered concessions and investment as the price of tariff relief from Washington. Market openings and headline investment pledges into the US replaced any notion of a rules-based trading order.

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