Putin – INSIDE RUSSIA AND EURASIA

Zelensky’s Diplomatic Offensive in the U.S.

By Nina Bachkatov

On 18 September, President Volodymyr Zelensky unveiled a “fully prepared” Victory Plan, marking his second political gamble in as many weeks. The first was the unexpected cross-border attack on Russia’s Kursk region, which reportedly caught even senior Ukrainian officials by surprise. This 10-point Victory Plan, more radical and uncompromising than the 4-point Peace Plan presented in February, adopts a “take it or leave it” approach towards Ukraine’s allies. Its contents will be “discussed” during a meeting with President Biden on 26 September, the focal point of Zelensky’s five-day tour of the United States.

A disconcerting war summer

By Nina Bachkatov

July and August were anything but uneventful in the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia. The summer began poorly for Ukraine, yet by the end of August, Russian citizens were witnessing their refineries ablaze as far east as Omsk, while 120,000 people were evacuated from the Kursk region. Despite these setbacks, Russia’s advance in the Donbas continued, accompanied by relentless waves of missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, leaving entire regions without electricity for much of the day. In this fraught context, President Zelensky’s plan for a second Peace Conference in November has come under scrutiny. Initially envisioned to include a Russian delegation and representatives of the “Global South,” the feasibility of the conference now seems uncertain. Meanwhile, President Putin remains steadfast in portraying Russia as under attack by Ukrainian terrorists backed by NATO, cyclically emphasising Russia’s status as a nuclear superpower.

Even the optimists now fear that the cycle of destruction and death will persist, fueled by a growing thirst for revenge in both Ukrainian and Russian societies. Rationality appears only one part of the equation when considering the non-exhaustive list of this summer’s developments.

The battlefield and political front: a shifting landscape

By Nina Bachkatov

The recent Russian offensive spanning the border between Belgorod and Kharkiv regions has ignited a flurry of discussions among Western observers, centering on terms like “strategic turn” and “historic shift.” These conversations gain particular significance against the backdrop of political upheavals in Moscow and Kyiv. However, the pivotal moment arrived from Washington. On April 21st, the US House of Representatives finally greenlit the long-delayed $61 billion aid package for Ukraine. Shortly thereafter, on May 14th, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a significant visit to Kyiv. President Biden’s swift enactment of the aid package, just three days after the congressional approval, fueled speculation about the quick deployment of American arms from European bases to Ukraine. Later, Blinken’s unexpected return on April 21st coincided with escalating Russian advances near Kharkiv.

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Pages: 12

The Kremlin challenged in a Moscow suburb

Two weeks after the March 22 attack in Moscow, the official inquiry has yet to reach a conclusion. What is certain is that the assailants killed more than 143 people, either by shooting them at point-blank range or engulfing them in the fire they ignited. Four men have been brought before the court, their arrests shrouded in conflicting circumstances. In images captured within the tribunal, they appeared severely beaten, with one in a semi-comatose state. This unsettling scene not only raises questions about the methods of the Russian police but also suggests political motives in circulating such a degrading portrayal.

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Pages: 12

Russia’s election under unprecedent control

By Nina Bachkatov

Rarely has an election, derided as a mere formality, garnered such extensive attention. From March 15th to 17th, Russian voters are tasked with selecting their next president from a slate of four candidates: the incumbent Vladimir Putin, Leonid Slutsky of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), Nikolai Kharitonov of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, and Vladislav Davankov of the New People Party. It is widely anticipated that Putin will secure victory in the first round, with predictions suggesting he will capture approximately 75% of the vote. Liberal factions have been significantly weakened through arrests, exile, and even fatalities.

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Pages: 12

A third year of war on European soil

By Nina Bachkatov

It is uncommon to “commemorate” the invasion of a country still under occupation and subjected to daily bombings by its neighbour. However, the war in Ukraine has followed an unconventional pattern due to political and military fluctuations since February 2022. The stark reality is that no one has presented the “innovative” approach called for by General Zaluzhny in his notable December 2023 letter to the American magazine Time. This notion has been reiterated during commemorations to emphasise the inadequacy of persisting with the same approach, albeit with improved equipment and greater coordination. The fact is that the year 2023 did not unfold as anticipated, and the prospects for 2024 appear uncertain for both internal and international reasons.

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Pages: 12

Vladimir the fifth

By Nina Bachkatov

On 8^th February, Russia’s Central Electoral Commission unveiled the four candidates officially registered for the 15-17 March presidential election. They are: Vladimir Putin, running independently for a fifth term; Leonid Slutsky from the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR); Nikolai Kharitonov from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation; and Vladislav Davankov from the New People Party. Slutsky and Kharitonov, known figures within the “systemic” opposition, are expected to garner approximately 10% of the votes. Davankov’s candidacy comes as a surprise; at 39 years old, he is the youngest candidate and a member of a lesser-known party. Twenty-five political parties have been granted participation rights in the election.

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Pages: 12