Tag: EU

Russian energy back on the EU agenda

By Nina Bachkatov

Everything appeared to be proceeding according to a well-scripted agenda, unfolding through months of indecision, bravado, and uncertainty. The war in Ukraine remained challenging on the front line, yet political and financial support remained unwavering. Few had taken seriously President Trump’s electoral promise to resolve the conflict within 24 hours by presenting President Putin with a deal he could not refuse. The EU was on course to adopt a 16th package of sanctions, bolstered by indications that the Russian economy and budget were facing increasing difficulties in balancing the cost of the war.

Although the package also reflects a lack of creative political alternatives, Brussels remains firmly committed to sanctions, particularly in the energy sector, adhering to its decision to eliminate Russian fossil fuels by 2027. On 4 February, undeterred by Kyiv’s military setbacks and galvanised by the need to respond to President Trump’s geopolitical pronouncements, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivered her equivalent of an inaugural speech. The content had been previewed a week earlier at the EU Ambassadors’ Conference. Her “Competitive Compass” is not significantly different from other “roadmaps” the EU is fond of producing. However, one of its four “concrete measures” to stimulate the continent’s economy over the next five years specifically addresses lowering energy costs.

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EU Takes Further Steps in Caucasus – Amid Risks

By Nina Bachkatov

In a matter of weeks, Armenia and Azerbaijan are poised to engage deeply in negotiations over border delineation, aiming to quell three decades of conflict regarding Nagorno-Karabakh, where repeated rounds of talks have proven fruitless. Despite the involvement of various regional powers, including Russia, Iran, and Turkey, the European Union has also sought to contribute. However, the EU has struggled to reconcile its role as just one actor among many in the former Soviet Union, including the Caucasus. The complexity of the situation on the ground, often underestimated from Brussels, underscores the potential for even minor actions to trigger significant internal and external ramifications.

Nevertheless, the EU possesses a specific mechanism for engagement through the Eastern Partnership (E.P.), which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Established at the Prague summit in May 2009, the E.P. offers additional funding in exchange for reforms in countries. Belarus has been removed from the list due to President Lukashenko’s regime; Ukraine and Moldova have pursued distinct paths.

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EU-UKRAINE:  Balancing Values and Economic Realities

By Nina Bachkatov

The EU summit on 1st February was anticipated to be challenging, with negotiations expected to extend until the last minute to mend the fallout from the inconclusive December summit. The primary agenda includes reaching an agreement on a revised 2021-2027 EU budget to support recovery, encompassing a 50-billion-euro four-year aid package to Ukraine, distinct from other forms of aid. The first requires unanimity among the 27 member states, while the second may face opposition from Hungary but could be legally maneuvered. Following the failure of the December EU summit and the postponement of an anticipated $61 billion military aid by the American Congress, President Zelensky initiated a diplomatic offensive in Europe and beyond, emphasizing the global significance of countering Russia in Ukraine. So far, the “allies” have contributed a total of $246 billion to Ukraine, covering arms, financial aid, and support for social needs on the ground, including refugees.

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Ukraine: Reconstruction Amid Ongoing Conflict

By Nina Bachkatov

Daily devastation and loss of life persist in Ukraine as the counter-offensive rages on, with no decisive outcome at present. Optimists are now openly acknowledging the possibility of military operations continuing until 2024 or longer. Despite the ongoing war with no end in sight, the urgent issue of reconstruction has become a paramount concern for Ukraine’s survival, placing the burden on the ‘Friends of Ukraine’ group. This paradoxical situation might be a way for the West to reframe its unwavering support for Ukraine, extending far beyond military assistance.

Since the fall of Kherson in September 22 and subsequent events in spring 23, even with the supply of sophisticated offensive weapons, the expected counter-offensive failed to materialise, leaving Kiev unable to negotiate from a position of strength. Additionally, public expressions of frustration emerged during the NATO Vilnius summit between Ukrainian and Western representatives. More recently, Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory and escalating tensions in the Black Sea have further complicated the situation.

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Putin’s foreign orientation under scruteny

By Nina Bachkatov

A series of Russian official declarations concerning the Kremlin’s foreign policy have been scrutinised by analysts convinced that the agenda and the content have been carefully timed. Especially when the messages are delivered by president Putin or his foreign minister Lavrov, at key moments of international and national scenes. And more importantly, that those declarations came just when Russia is preparing the new version of its Foreign Policy Concept. When it will be approved, the draft, along with the National Security Strategy endorsed this summer, will become a roadmap for the Foreign Ministry and other ministries and departments.

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