Category: EU

Jeddah Diplomacy and the Shifting Dynamics of the Ukraine Conflict

By Nina Bachkatov

The publication of a joint communiqué following marathon discussions in Saudi Arabia has fuelled speculation about a potential shift in the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. The statement, reportedly based on an agreement proposed by the United States and accepted by Ukraine, is to be conveyed to Russia via American envoys. In return, Washington has resumed intelligence sharing and arms deliveries, ending a brief pause, with Poland confirming that stored weaponry was immediately dispatched. As part of the agreement, Ukraine has accepted a cease fire extending beyond air and maritime operations, as initially suggested by President Volodymyr Zelensky. Furthermore, Kyiv has consented to sign a long-debated agreement granting American entities access to its national resources.

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Ukraine better armed, with caveat

President Biden’s decision to allow Ukrainians to strike inside Russian territory using American munitions took everyone by surprise. This move followed US Secretary of State Blinken’s unexpected visit to Kyiv on May 14. Blinken was reportedly shocked by the situation on the ground as detailed by President Zelensky, including the rapid progression of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region and devastating attacks on Ukraine’s second-largest city. This is not only a human catastrophe but also a significant blow to Kharkiv, an industrial and research center crucial for the country’s future reconstruction. Moreover, the advance of Russian forces beyond the 2014 front line jeopardises the West’s goal of pressuring Moscow to negotiate from a position of weakness.

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EU-UKRAINE:  Balancing Values and Economic Realities

By Nina Bachkatov

The EU summit on 1st February was anticipated to be challenging, with negotiations expected to extend until the last minute to mend the fallout from the inconclusive December summit. The primary agenda includes reaching an agreement on a revised 2021-2027 EU budget to support recovery, encompassing a 50-billion-euro four-year aid package to Ukraine, distinct from other forms of aid. The first requires unanimity among the 27 member states, while the second may face opposition from Hungary but could be legally maneuvered. Following the failure of the December EU summit and the postponement of an anticipated $61 billion military aid by the American Congress, President Zelensky initiated a diplomatic offensive in Europe and beyond, emphasizing the global significance of countering Russia in Ukraine. So far, the “allies” have contributed a total of $246 billion to Ukraine, covering arms, financial aid, and support for social needs on the ground, including refugees.

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Moldova, Another Headache for EU

By Nina Bachkatov

Since 1992, Moldova has remained largely overlooked by Westerners, confined to a realm of obscurity within Central Europe. Its borders, which have shifted throughout centuries, only gained attention after the collapse of the Soviet Union. With a population speaking Moldovan/Romanian and Russian, the latter also serving as the lingua franca for minorities, Moldova is widely regarded as the poorest country in Europe, with an estimated population of 2.2 to 2.5 million. Despite its peculiarities, it was in this very country that 47 European leaders, including the 27 EU members and 20 guests as diverse as the U.K., Turkey, and Andorra, convened on June 1 for the second meeting of the European Political Community (EPC). This gathering was marked by its symbolic significance on multiple fronts.

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E.U. attempt to unlock the Karabakh Issue

The president of the EU Council Charles Michel wanted a discreet meeting; he got it, but not for the reasons he wanted. He had invited Azerbaijan president Ilham Aliev and Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinian for a trilateral meeting in Brussels on 13-14 May. But, the same week-end, all attention were on the elections in Turkey and the impromptu visits of Ukrainian president Zelensky through European national capitals – not to the stability in Caucasus. Anyway, the meeting has participated to the ‘normalisation process’. On 1 June, Pashinian and Aliev shall meet France’s Macron and Germany’s Scholz in Chisinau, on the sidelines of the summit of the European Political Community. Moscow has just reminded that the trilateral agreements it signed with Baku and Yerevan after the ‘second Karabakh war’ of 2020 remain the only basis for the settlement” of relations between the two South Caucasus countries.

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The Importance of Perceptions: President Zelensky in Europe

By Nina Bachkatov

Back from his European tour, on 9 February, Ukrainian president Zelensky had addressed the nation as he does almost daily. He told his compatriots that he got “important agreements and good signals… This goes from long range missiles and tanks, to a new level of cooperation including fighter jets. But work has still to be done on that issue”. Evidently, Zelensky has only met supportive interlocutors and enjoyed standing ovations, keeping successfully world attention on his country. But, if he indeed got a lot of promises, a lot of hugs, and another European flag to enrich his collection, he came back home without clear conditions, and dates, for the jet fighters deliveries; nor an agenda for EU adhesion. Anyway, the training of pilots and engineers is “already starting” and the general consensus has been since that taboos about the deliveries of Western jets to Ukraine were falling, the way those concerning battle tanks did earlier.

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Another year EU-Russia energy war

 By Nina Bachkatov

According to European leaders’, the sanctions against Russian energy producers and exporters have reached their goals – depleting Russian’s national budget, which depends for almost half from energy’s trade, and finances the war in Ukraine. They rejoice that those sanctions provided EU with an incitant to drastically reform its energy sector. But that leaves open the question concerning the intermediary period, which will start in early 2023, especially if the West is not backed by other countries. Despite pressures, a majority of states still refuse to join sanctions that might threat their national interests, and are not ready to threat Vladimir Putin as the pariah president of a failed state. They also see the present crisis as an opportunity to increase their shares of the global market and their geopolitical profiles, to diversify their investments and their industrial basis.

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