Category: UE

A  Long Year for Ukraine and the World

By Nina Bachkatov

The 24 January passed on without the anticipated Russian offensive. In the Western world, thousands of people took the streets to express solidarity with the Ukrainian people.  Their leaders promised again to be on Ukraine’s side “up to the end”, “the time it will take”. In Kiev, Volodymyr Zelensky attended low key ceremonies focused on prayers for the victims and thanks to the fighters. A year after the invasion, peace seems a distant reality, an issue that will be decided on the battlefield. This conviction is reinforced by the slow effects of the economic war, with its sanctions and counter-sanctions, declared by the West to limit the Kremlin’s capacity to finance its war. Now the accent is still on broader sanctions, but the accent is back to military aspects, notably the delivery of arms requested by Ukraine to push Russians out by its own forces. In those conditions, diplomacy is relegated to the sideline, albeit some discreet channels stay open, witnessed for instance by the regular exchanges of prisoners. In fact, nobody wants to expose itself as the one that will raise a white flag, while staying on the save side by talking about the need to keep contacts with Russia.

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Another year EU-Russia energy war

 By Nina Bachkatov

According to European leaders’, the sanctions against Russian energy producers and exporters have reached their goals – depleting Russian’s national budget, which depends for almost half from energy’s trade, and finances the war in Ukraine. They rejoice that those sanctions provided EU with an incitant to drastically reform its energy sector. But that leaves open the question concerning the intermediary period, which will start in early 2023, especially if the West is not backed by other countries. Despite pressures, a majority of states still refuse to join sanctions that might threat their national interests, and are not ready to threat Vladimir Putin as the pariah president of a failed state. They also see the present crisis as an opportunity to increase their shares of the global market and their geopolitical profiles, to diversify their investments and their industrial basis.

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EU “diversified” aid to Ukraine

By Nina Bachkatov

The EU carries on with the preparation of its 20-21 October during which China will be the elephant in the room and all the complexity of the war in Ukraine the centre piece. After 8 months of violence and devastations, the EU is confronted with the full consequences of the sanctions it had imposed on Russian individuals and companies to undermine president Putin leadership and to starve Russia’s budgetary capacities to sustain a war.

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Putin’s new approach about Ukraine

By Nina Bachkatov

The successful Ukrainian counteroffensive, backed by Western new weapons and shared intelligence resources, obliged president Putin to come out. It took the form of a televised address to the nation, against a background of leakages and unusual stage crafting. It was first due to take place on the 20th evening, then it was postponed for the next day, at 8, then at 9 o’clock. That was enough to unleash new speculation concerning Putin’s physical and moral condition. The usual well-informed sources said that he had been so affected by fever and coughs that he was unable to face the cameras, despite the dispatch of a large medical staff; and that the program shown as a single tirade was in fact a re-mix of interrupted sessions.

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An orgy of summits around Ukraine and global competition

By Nina Bachkatov

In recent weeks, world’s leaders have been running from a summit to another one. Among Western allies, the key words were unity and solidarity; among the others, it was about multipolarity and convergence. But the background of all those diplomatic activities have been, and will be for a while, the war in Ukraine and its global consequences. There is also the growing awareness that the cost of the military operation and sanctions are indeed bleeding Russia, but much more Ukraine.

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Ukraine, the diplomatic dilemnas

Nina Bachkatov

On 24 March, a month after Russian forces crossed Ukrainian borders, president Bidden was in Brussels for meetings of EU, NATO and G7. Members were due to reinforce the united front against president Putin by agreeing to deliver more military aide for Ukraine, to enlarge sanctions against Russia, and to adopt a strategic “compass” that will guide Western powers in their relations with Russia. A country now perceived as a threat to almost everything that matters in the West. Participants were moved by the video address of the Ukrainian president calling for more Western efforts, and new sanctions more radical than those they were prepared to launch. But the representatives of the 3 institutions that gathered for two days in Brussels have been rallying around the idea once popular among Cold warriors minded milieux – that Putin does not want to destroy Ukraine, but all the democratic world.

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The eastern partnership under test

By Nina Bachkatov

The15 December meeting of the Eastern Partnership’s members was not a success, and could not have been when political, economic and military lines have been further blurred by tension between Russia and one of its core members – Ukraine. At least it took place, but the discussions and the general tone after the meeting provided another signal that European external affairs are split into a growing array of actors and interests. Parallelly to this summit, the European Council held a summit with Russia toping the agenda. Thanks to the increasingly aggressive foreign policy of Vladimir Putin, EU leaders managed to come with a unified position about new sanctions to apply in case Russia would invade Ukraine.

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