Category: Uncategorised

Ukraine: Reconstruction Amid Ongoing Conflict

By Nina Bachkatov

Daily devastation and loss of life persist in Ukraine as the counter-offensive rages on, with no decisive outcome at present. Optimists are now openly acknowledging the possibility of military operations continuing until 2024 or longer. Despite the ongoing war with no end in sight, the urgent issue of reconstruction has become a paramount concern for Ukraine’s survival, placing the burden on the ‘Friends of Ukraine’ group. This paradoxical situation might be a way for the West to reframe its unwavering support for Ukraine, extending far beyond military assistance.

Since the fall of Kherson in September 22 and subsequent events in spring 23, even with the supply of sophisticated offensive weapons, the expected counter-offensive failed to materialise, leaving Kiev unable to negotiate from a position of strength. Additionally, public expressions of frustration emerged during the NATO Vilnius summit between Ukrainian and Western representatives. More recently, Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory and escalating tensions in the Black Sea have further complicated the situation.

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Moldova, Another Headache for EU

By Nina Bachkatov

Since 1992, Moldova has remained largely overlooked by Westerners, confined to a realm of obscurity within Central Europe. Its borders, which have shifted throughout centuries, only gained attention after the collapse of the Soviet Union. With a population speaking Moldovan/Romanian and Russian, the latter also serving as the lingua franca for minorities, Moldova is widely regarded as the poorest country in Europe, with an estimated population of 2.2 to 2.5 million. Despite its peculiarities, it was in this very country that 47 European leaders, including the 27 EU members and 20 guests as diverse as the U.K., Turkey, and Andorra, convened on June 1 for the second meeting of the European Political Community (EPC). This gathering was marked by its symbolic significance on multiple fronts.

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Davos, G7, G20: Russia left aside

By Nina Bachkatov

The absence of the Russians at the Davos Forum has underlined the country’s isolation, and has been celebrated as such by the West. Earlier, members of the G7 and G20 had already been meeting without president Putin or Russian high-level officials. But it did not prevent Moscow’s dignitaries to crisscross the world to engage all those who do not believe in the Western declared goals. Lately, Westerners’ sources have begun to question the claims that Russia is an international pariah and that the world at large has some appetite for more sanctions. Hence the apparition of a new narrative, still a minority, according to which Russia is indeed isolated from the West, but not from the world.

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The fickering of E.U.’s energy security

By Nina Bachkatov

In a month time, the EU should implement a ban adopted in full coordination with its G7 partners to end its oil dependency from Russia. The ban will unfold in two stages: the first, on 5 December 2022, concerns the crude oil; the second,  on 5 February 2023, will stop imports of refined petroleum products. This is in the line with the 8 packages of EU sanctions, mostly directed against energy imports from Russia. Already, Gazprom’s deliveries have been cut down by two thirds and are due to drop further. Coal and civilian nuclear produces are already sidelined, and Westinghouse has been more or less discreetly ‘contacting’ countries that had previously used Rosatom services. Energy specialists have published converging reports according to which, if things stay as they are, the West can face the winter without the anticipated level of sufferings. This results from combined decisions to fill storage’s facilities during the autumn, a political readiness to release strategic reserves in case of shortages; and the mobilisation of all the users to reduce their energy’s consumption.

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Grain war in the Black Sea

By Nina Bachkatov

Three months after the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces, a new front has been open – about grain’s exports and global food security. The concept was hardly mentioned before the fall of Mariupol, when international attention switched from the fights around Azovstal to the inaccessibility of Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea. The accent has been put on its global consequences, from the prices’ increase of basic food in the West to the risk of famine in poor countries. In a couple of weeks, Westerners preoccupied with energy bills discovered that a third of the 200-300m tonnes of cereals exchanged yearly through the world were coming from Russia and Ukraine.

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Russia’s awareness of regional around Afghanistan

By Nina Bachkatov

For those waiting for clear Russian signals about Afghanistan, the clearest one came from President Putin himself on 3 September when he addressed a plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum. The Forum has been established by presidential decree in 2015 to support the economic development of the Eastern part of Russia and attract foreign investors. Putin’s message to the West, with whom Russia had tense relations, was to remind that the Russian eagle on the flag had to heads, one looking West and the other East. By chance, it was from Vladivostok that Putin found himself explaining Russian positions, about Afghanistan, after a Western debacle.

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Belarus going nuclear, against all odds

By Nina Bachkatov

Technically speaking, the preliminary report of the European Nuclear Safety Regulators Group (ENSREG) about the Ostrovets Belarusian Nuclear Power Station reflects E.U. worries about its security. But political considerations are part of the equation, bearing in mind Belarus’ internal situation, the tortuous relations between the European Union and its Eastern Partnership’s allies, the unfinished creation of a single Baltic grid. And, the relations of the different actors with Russia. Continue reading “Belarus going nuclear, against all odds”