Davos, G7, G20: Russia left aside

By Nina Bachkatov

The absence of the Russians at the Davos Forum has underlined the country’s isolation, and has been celebrated as such by the West. Earlier, members of the G7 and G20 had already been meeting without president Putin or Russian high-level officials. But it did not prevent Moscow’s dignitaries to crisscross the world to engage all those who do not believe in the Western declared goals. Lately, Westerners’ sources have begun to question the claims that Russia is an international pariah and that the world at large has some appetite for more sanctions. Hence the apparition of a new narrative, still a minority, according to which Russia is indeed isolated from the West, but not from the world.

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Moscow and Kiev weaponizing orthodox Christmas

By Nina Bachkatov

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine leaves no stone unturned, witness the saga around Christmas celebrations, epitomized in two extravagant pictures: that of the Russian president celebrating the Nativity in an empty church; and that of a crowd of men in uniforms attending the mass in Kiev’s Pechersky Caves just ‘liberated” from the All Russia and Moscow Patriarchate by presidential decree.

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Another year EU-Russia energy war

 By Nina Bachkatov

According to European leaders’, the sanctions against Russian energy producers and exporters have reached their goals – depleting Russian’s national budget, which depends for almost half from energy’s trade, and finances the war in Ukraine. They rejoice that those sanctions provided EU with an incitant to drastically reform its energy sector. But that leaves open the question concerning the intermediary period, which will start in early 2023, especially if the West is not backed by other countries. Despite pressures, a majority of states still refuse to join sanctions that might threat their national interests, and are not ready to threat Vladimir Putin as the pariah president of a failed state. They also see the present crisis as an opportunity to increase their shares of the global market and their geopolitical profiles, to diversify their investments and their industrial basis.

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Wagner’s Prigozhin goes public

By Nina Bachkatov

For almost 10 years, the existence of the group, and the name of its leader, were an open secret, in Russia and abroad. As late as October 2022, president Putin, foreign minister Lavrov and defence minister Shoigu were denying the existence of private military companies in their country. Then, in early November, out of the blue, Yevgeni Prigozhin threw his Wagner group in full light, unleashing a stream of comments and the publication of well-timed books. The move was so astonishing that many Russians, who had seen the film in which Prigozhin was seen recruiting prisoners in a prison courtyard, believed it was a fake. Even in distant villages, people knew names such as Wagner or Prigozhin, but thought it  was not their business unless a member of the family had been enrolled.

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The fickering of E.U.’s energy security

By Nina Bachkatov

In a month time, the EU should implement a ban adopted in full coordination with its G7 partners to end its oil dependency from Russia. The ban will unfold in two stages: the first, on 5 December 2022, concerns the crude oil; the second,  on 5 February 2023, will stop imports of refined petroleum products. This is in the line with the 8 packages of EU sanctions, mostly directed against energy imports from Russia. Already, Gazprom’s deliveries have been cut down by two thirds and are due to drop further. Coal and civilian nuclear produces are already sidelined, and Westinghouse has been more or less discreetly ‘contacting’ countries that had previously used Rosatom services. Energy specialists have published converging reports according to which, if things stay as they are, the West can face the winter without the anticipated level of sufferings. This results from combined decisions to fill storage’s facilities during the autumn, a political readiness to release strategic reserves in case of shortages; and the mobilisation of all the users to reduce their energy’s consumption.

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EU “diversified” aid to Ukraine

By Nina Bachkatov

The EU carries on with the preparation of its 20-21 October during which China will be the elephant in the room and all the complexity of the war in Ukraine the centre piece. After 8 months of violence and devastations, the EU is confronted with the full consequences of the sanctions it had imposed on Russian individuals and companies to undermine president Putin leadership and to starve Russia’s budgetary capacities to sustain a war.

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Putin’s new approach about Ukraine

By Nina Bachkatov

The successful Ukrainian counteroffensive, backed by Western new weapons and shared intelligence resources, obliged president Putin to come out. It took the form of a televised address to the nation, against a background of leakages and unusual stage crafting. It was first due to take place on the 20th evening, then it was postponed for the next day, at 8, then at 9 o’clock. That was enough to unleash new speculation concerning Putin’s physical and moral condition. The usual well-informed sources said that he had been so affected by fever and coughs that he was unable to face the cameras, despite the dispatch of a large medical staff; and that the program shown as a single tirade was in fact a re-mix of interrupted sessions.

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