Category: Economics

Ukraine: Reconstruction Amid Ongoing Conflict

By Nina Bachkatov

Daily devastation and loss of life persist in Ukraine as the counter-offensive rages on, with no decisive outcome at present. Optimists are now openly acknowledging the possibility of military operations continuing until 2024 or longer. Despite the ongoing war with no end in sight, the urgent issue of reconstruction has become a paramount concern for Ukraine’s survival, placing the burden on the ‘Friends of Ukraine’ group. This paradoxical situation might be a way for the West to reframe its unwavering support for Ukraine, extending far beyond military assistance.

Since the fall of Kherson in September 22 and subsequent events in spring 23, even with the supply of sophisticated offensive weapons, the expected counter-offensive failed to materialise, leaving Kiev unable to negotiate from a position of strength. Additionally, public expressions of frustration emerged during the NATO Vilnius summit between Ukrainian and Western representatives. More recently, Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory and escalating tensions in the Black Sea have further complicated the situation.

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Davos, G7, G20: Russia left aside

By Nina Bachkatov

The absence of the Russians at the Davos Forum has underlined the country’s isolation, and has been celebrated as such by the West. Earlier, members of the G7 and G20 had already been meeting without president Putin or Russian high-level officials. But it did not prevent Moscow’s dignitaries to crisscross the world to engage all those who do not believe in the Western declared goals. Lately, Westerners’ sources have begun to question the claims that Russia is an international pariah and that the world at large has some appetite for more sanctions. Hence the apparition of a new narrative, still a minority, according to which Russia is indeed isolated from the West, but not from the world.

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Another year EU-Russia energy war

 By Nina Bachkatov

According to European leaders’, the sanctions against Russian energy producers and exporters have reached their goals – depleting Russian’s national budget, which depends for almost half from energy’s trade, and finances the war in Ukraine. They rejoice that those sanctions provided EU with an incitant to drastically reform its energy sector. But that leaves open the question concerning the intermediary period, which will start in early 2023, especially if the West is not backed by other countries. Despite pressures, a majority of states still refuse to join sanctions that might threat their national interests, and are not ready to threat Vladimir Putin as the pariah president of a failed state. They also see the present crisis as an opportunity to increase their shares of the global market and their geopolitical profiles, to diversify their investments and their industrial basis.

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An orgy of summits around Ukraine and global competition

By Nina Bachkatov

In recent weeks, world’s leaders have been running from a summit to another one. Among Western allies, the key words were unity and solidarity; among the others, it was about multipolarity and convergence. But the background of all those diplomatic activities have been, and will be for a while, the war in Ukraine and its global consequences. There is also the growing awareness that the cost of the military operation and sanctions are indeed bleeding Russia, but much more Ukraine.

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Grain war in the Black Sea

By Nina Bachkatov

Three months after the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces, a new front has been open – about grain’s exports and global food security. The concept was hardly mentioned before the fall of Mariupol, when international attention switched from the fights around Azovstal to the inaccessibility of Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea. The accent has been put on its global consequences, from the prices’ increase of basic food in the West to the risk of famine in poor countries. In a couple of weeks, Westerners preoccupied with energy bills discovered that a third of the 200-300m tonnes of cereals exchanged yearly through the world were coming from Russia and Ukraine.

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Another gas crisis between Russia and Moldova

By Nina Bachkatov 

The latest “gas crisis” between Russia’s and Moldova’s energy companies has offered a good opportunity to measure the evolution of Moscow’s energy diplomacy. The formulation of the final agreement, published after days of bilateral discussions, says a lot. It speaks of an agreement “meeting the interests of both Russia and Moldova” and “showing to Europe and the entire world that Gazprom can come to terms and offer mutually beneficial conditions to its partners”.  In short, better with us that against us. 

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Energy’s latest chapter of EU-Russia relations

By Nina Bachkatov

The present global energy crisis might offer an opportunity for EU and Russian to move towards a softer dialogue after years of tensions, during which gas has been an increasing element of distrust, among many others. Progress will require to move away from mutual accusation of blackmail and of weaponing energy, and a radical change of mindset from two partners entrenched in a zero-sum game.

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