Geopolitics – INSIDE RUSSIA AND EURASIA

Peace Plans for Ukraine – Trump in Majesty

By Nina Bachkatov

From plans to counter-plans, last-minute mini-summits, telephone or video round tables, the salami-slicing diplomacy deployed in the search for an end to the war in Ukraine has quickly shown its limits. One problem is that it involves too many actors with divergent — sometimes contradictory — interests, many keener to appear in the picture than to contribute to a solution. Another is that it lays bare the agony of traditional diplomacy in an age of instant media exposure.

Pandora’s Blades: Drones Redefine Security in Europe

By Nina Bachkatov and Romain Constantin

The use of drones has shifted from anecdotal to essential in modern warfare, largely due to the war in Ukraine. No one speaks any more of a “war of another time”, with soldiers in trenches and artillery barrages. Over the course of the conflict, drones have become indispensable on land, at sea, and in the air. They are used for everything from kamikaze strikes and aerial bombardments to delivering supplies, scattering leaflets, conducting reconnaissance, and even engaging in drone-on-drone combat. It has become an industry in its own right, as shown by the increasing number of media reports on the Ukrainian war appearing as frequently in financial pages as in international ones.

From the very first days of the conflict in February 2022, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) began to play a crucial role on the battlefield. The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 gained early renown for striking Russian military equipment with remarkable precision. Its success was amplified by video footage captured by the drones themselves—images that quickly became defining visuals of the war and a powerful tool of information warfare.

A Glut of Summits and a Lack of Substance

By Nina Bachkatov

If summits are a barometer of international relations, August and early September 2025 have been unusually busy. It began in Anchorage on 15 August, when President Trump warmly shook hands with President Putin—without extracting any concessions. The encounter alarmed President Zelensky, who rushed to Washington to set the record straight, backed by European allies keen to assert their weight and prevent another public humiliation of Ukraine’s leader by “Daddy Trump.” There were much flattery and thanks, but little substance.

After that, “historic summits” became a near-daily occurrence, often convened at short notice. There were duos, trios, quartets—an entire diplomatic orchestra—until President Macron called a “hybrid” summit in Paris on 4 September, with Zelensky in attendance. The self-styled “coalition of the willing” wanted to present its own plan after Trump had challenged them to do so. Hybrid in format (some leaders in person, others by video), it also mixed those with authority to deploy troops with EU officials who lacked such powers. At the last minute, they were joined by Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff.

The Ukrainian Long Search for Peace

By Nina Bachkatov

The Russo-Ukrainian meeting in Istanbul on 16 May proved a diplomatic failure. Yet, both delegations made incremental progress on humanitarian issues, agreeing to a substantial 64th prisoner exchange involving not only military personnel but also civilians. The first exchange took place on 23 May.

Despite a momentary easing of tensions, hostilities resumed. Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted Moscow’s airports and struck vulnerable southern cities, while Russian drones and missiles targeted Kyiv, injuring several dozen people.

Nonetheless, both Kyiv and Moscow announced that they were preparing documents outlining conditions for a broader, long-term settlement. These would be exchanged once the prisoner transfers concluded. The move supports the argument by analysts that progress lies in building upon what works, rather than issuing ultimatums. The process also highlights the existence of discreet bilateral and multilateral diplomatic channels. While there is a risk that both armies may detain more prisoners to strengthen their bargaining positions, the current exchanges remain one of the few functioning points of contact.

V-Day 80: Ruptures More Than Unity

By Nina Bachkatov

Eighty years after the end of the Second World War, this year’s Victory Day commemorations were marked less by shared remembrance than by sharp geopolitical fractures. While honouring the millions who perished remains a moral imperative, the celebrations of May 2025 unfolded under the shadow of a world order in flux — and, some argue, in retreat.

Against the backdrop of a third year of war in Ukraine, the V-Day events served more to highlight divisions than to evoke unity. Former allies now face each other as strategic adversaries; familiar institutions appear strained, and proposals for a post-WWII-style settlement — one that might replace the fraying “rules-based international order” — remain conspicuously absent.

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