Category: Geopolitics

EU’s Sanctions Meet a Changing World

By Nina Bachkatov

A few hours before heading off for the summer break, EU ambassadors finally agreed on the 21st package of sanctions against Russia. The negotiations were difficult, reflecting an increasingly simple reality: after more than a decade of sanctions, new targets are becoming harder to find. But European policymakers remain convinced that sanctions are steadily eroding Russia’s capacity to wage war.

The first lists, adopted in 2014, were sometimes riddled with errors, including deceased individuals and confused patronymics. Today, Brussels relies on far more sophisticated intelligence and the net has widened dramatically, targeting relatives, subsidiaries, minority shareholders and companies supplying dual-use components. Yet after twenty-one packages, agreeing on fresh measures has become increasingly contentious. Many proposals originate in Ukraine—from ntelligence services, think tanks or lobbying networks—but translating them into legally robust and politically acceptable sanctions is becoming ever more difficult.

The first problem is timing. On the very day the EU agreed to keep the price cap on Russian oil exports to $44 a barrel, global oil prices climbed to $100. Such measures inevitably lose much of their intended impact when markets move faster than policymakers.

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Nato’s Russian Doll Summit

By Nina Bachkatov

A few days after the 7–8 July Nato summit, one conclusion stands out: it was not really a single event but a collection of parallel interpretations. President Trump saw it through the lens of leverage, burden-sharing and personal diplomacy; Nato general secretary Rutte and European leaders was it as an exercise in preserving transatlantic unity; president Erdogan saw an opportunity for Turkey’s defence industry and strategic influence; president Zelensky and parts of the Ukrainian security establishment saw momentum for escalation and pressure on Moscow; Russian leaders interpreted the same developments as evidence of a Western confrontation with Russia.

For weeks, Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte had worked to keep President Donald Trump on board, whatever the cost. That meant accepting the principle of raising defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP, alongside tens of billions in additional support for Ukraine. Yet Trump arrived at the summit in a combative mood. He berated Iran, criticised allies that had failed to support the US-Israeli campaign, rebuked Denmark over Greenland and Spain over its defence spending, while barely mentioning Ukraine. To underline his detachment, he declared that he had attended largely because President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan would be there. Every gesture, every smile and every remark was scrutinised for its geopolitical significance.

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Russia’s First Wartime Duma Election

By Nina Bachkatov, with Romain Constantin

Despite commentators’ fondness for hyperbole, Russia’s parliamentary elections on September 18-20 are unlikely to generate much excitement. Barring a political earthquake, attention will focus, as usual, on turnout and on any further erosion in support for the ruling United Russia party — and what this may, or may not, reveal about the national mood after a series of unpopular measures and, above all, the “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine.

More significantly, the annexed Ukrainian territories have now been fully integrated into Russia’s electoral system, with new constituencies established in these regions. In doing so, Vladimir Putin has turned a domestic election into an international issue. Ukraine and most of the international community dismissed the 2014 referendums in Crimea and Donbas as political theatre. For the Kremlin, however, the inhabitants of these territories are now Russian citizens and voters entitled to protection.

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Moscow and Kyiv’s dangerous diplomacy of unilateral truces

By Nina Bachkatov

The war in Ukraine has transformed modern warfare since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022. The most visible innovation has been the strategic use of drones. Less expected has been the emergence of what might be called “unilateral truces”: temporary ceasefires declared by one side without prior negotiation or agreement with the other. Rather than opening a path towards peace, these pauses have become instruments of political and information warfare. Each side seeks to corner the other, gambling that its opponent will violate the truce first and thereby reinforce competing domestic and international narratives.

The latest episode unfolded in early May. On May 4, Vladimir Putin unexpectedly announced that Russian forces would observe a ceasefire on May 8-9 to mark the anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in 1945. Volodymyr Zelensky initially dismissed the proposal, arguing that no serious observer could trust Russian guarantees and that any meaningful ceasefire should be permanent rather than symbolic. Later the same day, however, Kyiv responded with a proposal of its own: a unilateral Ukrainian truce beginning on May 5.

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A War without End – And Shifting Priorities

By Nina Bachkatov, with Romain Constantin

After more than four years of death and destruction, the initial sense of urgency has given way to a degree of normalisation, with the war in Ukraine increasingly reduced to daily tallies of losses on both sides. International attention has shifted — to Lebanon, the Strait of Hormuz, and economic tensions in the Asia-Pacific that could affect western economies. At the same time, EU institutions and national governments are struggling to support businesses and households from already stretched budgets.

For President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, this marks a renewed form of the feared “Ukraine fatigue”, partly alleviated by the approval of a €90bn EU loan — notably financing rather than aid. The funds will help sustain Ukraine’s war effort and Zelenskyy’s leadership. In return, Kyiv has agreed to repair damage to the Druzhba pipeline, which carries Russian oil to Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.

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Armenia Tests the Limits of Post-Soviet Alliances

By Nina Bachkatov and Romain Constantin

On April 1, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to the Kremlin underscored both the fragility of the “peace in the Caucasus” framework and the enduring complexity of post-Soviet institutions, more than three decades after the collapse of the USSR. Armenia has long been a pillar of the evolving structures that emerged from the Commonwealth of Independent States, from economic integration—most recently through the Eurasian Economic Union—to military coordination within the Collective Security Treaty Organisation.

The backdrop has shifted. The war in Iran now threatens all three South Caucasus states, particularly landlocked Armenia. Against this backdrop, Mr Pashinyan and Russian president Vladimir Putin appeared jointly before the press prior to their talks—an unusual move. Their remarks followed familiar diplomatic formulas, yet the tone was notably more direct than in the past.

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Zelensky Seeks Leverage as Attention Shifts Abroad

By Nina Bachkatov

On March 21, President Volodymyr Zelensky said talks between Ukrainian and American negotiators would continue for a second day, underlining the urgency of the moment. Timing has become critical. A trilateral meeting aimed at ending the war, scheduled to take place in Abu Dhabi on February 28, has been postponed indefinitely for obvious reasons. Zelensky went further, stating that he was “requiring” from Washington a “clear” timetable for the next round of negotiations with Russia.

What he described as a “political delegation” has been tasked with persuading its interlocutors, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, that Ukraine seeks peace—unlike Russia—and that it is therefore incumbent on the US to sustain diplomatic efforts.

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