Russia’s First Wartime Duma Election

By Nina Bachkatov, with Romain Constantin

Despite commentators’ fondness for hyperbole, Russia’s parliamentary elections on September 18-20 are unlikely to generate much excitement. Barring a political earthquake, attention will focus, as usual, on turnout and on any further erosion in support for the ruling United Russia party — and what this may, or may not, reveal about the national mood after a series of unpopular measures and, above all, the “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine.

More significantly, the annexed Ukrainian territories have now been fully integrated into Russia’s electoral system, with new constituencies established in these regions. In doing so, Vladimir Putin has turned a domestic election into an international issue. Ukraine and most of the international community dismissed the 2014 referendums in Crimea and Donbas as political theatre. For the Kremlin, however, the inhabitants of these territories are now Russian citizens and voters entitled to protection.

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Moscow and Kyiv’s dangerous diplomacy of unilateral truces

By Nina Bachkatov

The war in Ukraine has transformed modern warfare since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022. The most visible innovation has been the strategic use of drones. Less expected has been the emergence of what might be called “unilateral truces”: temporary ceasefires declared by one side without prior negotiation or agreement with the other. Rather than opening a path towards peace, these pauses have become instruments of political and information warfare. Each side seeks to corner the other, gambling that its opponent will violate the truce first and thereby reinforce competing domestic and international narratives.

The latest episode unfolded in early May. On May 4, Vladimir Putin unexpectedly announced that Russian forces would observe a ceasefire on May 8-9 to mark the anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in 1945. Volodymyr Zelensky initially dismissed the proposal, arguing that no serious observer could trust Russian guarantees and that any meaningful ceasefire should be permanent rather than symbolic. Later the same day, however, Kyiv responded with a proposal of its own: a unilateral Ukrainian truce beginning on May 5.

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