Month: January 2026

War in Ukraine Reshaping Russia’s State System

By Nina Bachkatov and Romain Constantin

On January 19, Russia’s presidential administration and the ruling United Russia party announced the figures who will lead the party’s campaign for the September 2026 parliamentary elections — the first national ballot since the launch of the “special military operation” in Ukraine. The five-man list includes former president Dmitry Medvedev and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, both advocates of a hardline foreign policy; two Heroes of Russia active in patriotic youth movements; and a Hero of Labour who is a prominent war correspondent.

The move could result in veterans accounting for up to one-fifth of the 450-seat State Duma and nearly one-third of United Russia’s parliamentary group. But similar advantages were extended to veterans ahead of the 2023–24 regional and local elections, with limited success: few candidates were elected, and many faced resistance from entrenched local elites accustomed to distributing candidacies among themselves.

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STRANGE PEACEMAKERS

By Nina Bachkatov

The American intervention in Venezuela has reverberated far beyond Latin America, including in Ukraine, and was the unspoken backdrop to the 6 January gathering in Paris of 35 representatives of the Coalition of the Willing. The sight of Nicolás Maduro in shackles before the world’s cameras was greeted with quiet satisfaction in Kyiv, if only because he had been a Russian ally. Some Ukrainians briefly imagined Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin gripped by the fear that he, too, might one day share Maduro’s fate.

That moment of schadenfreude was short-lived. What if Donald Trump were to send marines not to Moscow but to Kyiv, to depose what he might label an “illegal president” of a “corrupt country” unwilling to accept his grand peace designs?

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