Month: November 2025

No Thanksgiving for Ukraine

By Nina Bachkatov

Thanksgiving has passed. President Donald Trump pardoned two turkeys rather than the traditional one, but his 28-point peace plan — which he intended President Volodymyr Zelensky to sign by the holiday — has met a barrage of criticism and accusations of capitulation to Vladimir Putin. Nonetheless, it has triggered a flurry of diplomatic activity far beyond the four parties directly involved in the search for a settlement — Kyiv, Moscow, Washington and the EU. The plan has been taken seriously further afield, as shown by offers of mediation or safe venues for talks from Turkey, Arab capitals and even Belarus.

Trump’s initiative, reworked into a 19-point document drafted jointly by Ukrainian and US officials, remains at the centre of discussions. It contains two so-called “details” left for “further talks” — an odd label given they concern core issues such as security guarantees for Ukraine and territorial questions. Whatever happens, it will not be resolved tomorrow. In the meantime, the length of the war has reshaped public attitudes, political dynamics and financial calculations. These shifts are reflected in the composition of the negotiating delegations and the distribution of responsibilities among them. Yet in the end, the decisions lie with Trump, Putin and Zelensky.

Continue reading “No Thanksgiving for Ukraine”

Pandora’s Blades: Drones Redefine Security in Europe

By Nina Bachkatov and Romain Constantin

The use of drones has shifted from anecdotal to essential in modern warfare, largely due to the war in Ukraine. No one speaks any more of a “war of another time”, with soldiers in trenches and artillery barrages. Over the course of the conflict, drones have become indispensable on land, at sea, and in the air. They are used for everything from kamikaze strikes and aerial bombardments to delivering supplies, scattering leaflets, conducting reconnaissance, and even engaging in drone-on-drone combat. It has become an industry in its own right, as shown by the increasing number of media reports on the Ukrainian war appearing as frequently in financial pages as in international ones.

From the very first days of the conflict in February 2022, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) began to play a crucial role on the battlefield. The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 gained early renown for striking Russian military equipment with remarkable precision. Its success was amplified by video footage captured by the drones themselves—images that quickly became defining visuals of the war and a powerful tool of information warfare.

Continue reading “Pandora’s Blades: Drones Redefine Security in Europe”

The Reality Behind the Summits on Ukraine

By Nina Bachkatov

The recent meeting between President Trump and President Xi was expected, in some quarters, to mark the moment when Washington would pressure Beijing to in turn pressure Moscow into accepting a “just peace” in Ukraine. Instead, it highlighted the limits of that expectation. The two leaders announced only that they would “do something together” on Ukraine. There was no mention of secondary sanctions should China continue to support Russia’s war effort. Taiwan, the other major strategic question in the room, was left untouched.

The encounter was consistent with the broader pattern of Trump’s tour of South and South-East Asia during the ASEAN summit in Malaysia. Trade dominated every bilateral exchange. Trump arrived buoyed by what he characterised as diplomatic success in the Middle East and presided over a symbolic peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia. He authorised South Korea to build a nuclear submarine. Leaders offered concessions and investment as the price of tariff relief from Washington. Market openings and headline investment pledges into the US replaced any notion of a rules-based trading order.

Continue reading “The Reality Behind the Summits on Ukraine”